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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ seahawks week 12, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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KC logo
KCChiefs
6-4
42
TBD
Lumen Field
43°F
1 mph
24
SEASeahawks
5-5
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
43°F
1 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
14
0
21
42
Seahawks
1
3
7
7
18

Spread

KC logo
-2

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
503
288
Total Plays
80
51
Yards / Play
6.3
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.11
Passing Yards
--
268
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
20/37(54%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.50
-0.20
Rushing Yards
270
20
Rush Attempts
48
12
Yards / Rush
5.6
1.7
EPA / Rush
+0.22
-0.40
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
28
13
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
13
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
65%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
11
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
5
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-2.73
-12.00
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-14
Sack EPA
--
-6.28
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
50
--
Penalty EPA
-4.89
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
-0.5

Win Probability

Market54.7%
Model51.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+15
Home nfelo
1,404
Away nfelo
1,462
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.8
Home QB Adjustment
+13.1
Away QB Adjustment
+24.9
Market Regression
-10.1
Final Difference
-10.1
Model Spread
+0.5

Quarterbacks

M. Cassel headshot

M. Cassel

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+24.9
Value
Ptile
09/13
-4.2
22
09/19
-5.7
14
09/26
4.6
80
10/10
-3.2
27
10/17
4.5
79
10/24
1.9
60
10/31
-2.9
30
11/07
-0.2
48
11/14
9.5
96
11/21
2.7
67
M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+13.1
Value
Ptile
01/03
-5.8
15
09/12
4.5
80
09/19
-0.8
44
09/26
-2.2
35
10/03
-6.8
10
10/17
2.8
68
10/24
-4.6
19
10/31
-13.8
1
11/14
4.4
79
11/21
10.6
98

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Chiefs logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
18
27
Yards / Game
16
30
Passing Yards / Game
31
24
Rushing Yards / Game
1
21

EPA

EPA / Play
16
25
EPA / Pass
13
29
EPA / Rush
7
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
17
Interceptions / Game
4
27
Fumbles / Game
15
20
Turnover EPA / Game
31
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
26
4th Down Efficiency
22
7
RZ Efficiency
7
11
Seahawks Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Seahawks logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
22
14
Yards / Game
26
16
Passing Yards / Game
25
22
Rushing Yards / Game
31
16

EPA

EPA / Play
22
18
EPA / Pass
24
17
EPA / Rush
24
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
20
Interceptions / Game
20
22
Fumbles / Game
12
30
Turnover EPA / Game
12
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
18
4th Down Efficiency
29
6
RZ Efficiency
26
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
7
W
W
U
09/19
2
W
W
U
09/26
21
W
W
O
10/10
-10
L
L
U
10/17
-4
L
W
O
10/24
22
W
W
O
10/31
3
W
L
U
11/07
-3
L
L
O
11/14
-20
L
L
O
11/21
18
W
W
U
SEA logo

Seahawks

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
25
W
W
P
09/19
-17
L
L
O
09/26
7
W
W
O
10/03
-17
L
L
U
10/17
3
W
W
O
10/24
12
W
W
U
10/31
-30
L
L
U
11/07
-34
L
L
O
11/14
18
W
W
O
11/21
-15
L
L
O