KCChiefs
1-0
42
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
80°F
10 mph
37
PITSteelers
0-0
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
80°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
21
0
14
7
42
Steelers
0
21
7
7
35
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
449
477
Total Plays
54
75
Yards / Play
8.3
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.48
+0.16
Passing Yards
322
444
Comp/Att
23/28(82%)
39/61(64%)
Yards / Pass
11.5
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.86
+0.25
Rushing Yards
127
33
Rush Attempts
25
13
Yards / Rush
5.1
2.5
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
33
Passing 1st downs
17
25
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
6
3rd Down %
40%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
5
11
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.81
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-4
-10
Sack EPA
-1.48
-1.78
Penalties
12
12
Penalty Yards
76
90
Penalty EPA
-9.74
-7.68
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+106
Home nfelo
1,568
Away nfelo
1,548
Home Field
+66.8
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.1
Net QB Adjustment
+19.5
Home QB Adjustment
+5.6
Away QB Adjustment
-13.9
Market Regression
-7.8
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
-13.9
Value
Ptile
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
16
Yards / Game
1
6
Passing Yards / Game
7
27
Rushing Yards / Game
15
5
EPA
EPA / Play
1
20
EPA / Pass
1
18
EPA / Rush
1
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
29
Interceptions / Game
10
27
Fumbles / Game
12
19
Turnover EPA / Game
29
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
9
4th Down Efficiency
4
12
RZ Efficiency
1
16
Steelers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
24
Yards / Game
5
31
Passing Yards / Game
2
30
Rushing Yards / Game
31
27
EPA
EPA / Play
8
25
EPA / Pass
4
16
EPA / Rush
15
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
28
Interceptions / Game
26
9
Fumbles / Game
18
7
Turnover EPA / Game
7
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
26
4th Down Efficiency
6
28
RZ Efficiency
2
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Steelers
7-2-1
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U