KCChiefs
2-1
14
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
59°F
6 mph
43
PITSteelers
2-1
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
59°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
0
0
14
14
Steelers
22
7
7
7
43
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
357
438
Total Plays
72
56
Yards / Play
5.0
7.8
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.37
Passing Yards
270
289
Comp/Att
30/50(60%)
22/28(79%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
10.3
EPA / Pass
-0.05
+0.74
Rushing Yards
87
149
Rush Attempts
18
26
Yards / Rush
4.8
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
17
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
47%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.20
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-17
-13
Sack EPA
-4.96
-3.01
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
40
68
Penalty EPA
-3.88
-2.68
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+56
Home nfelo
1,598
Away nfelo
1,586
Home Field
+47.0
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-3.4
Home QB Adjustment
+0.8
Away QB Adjustment
+4.2
Market Regression
-21.1
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.2
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
10
Yards / Game
21
10
Passing Yards / Game
21
10
Rushing Yards / Game
19
8
EPA
EPA / Play
12
18
EPA / Pass
16
15
EPA / Rush
12
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
32
Interceptions / Game
8
19
Fumbles / Game
23
15
Turnover EPA / Game
22
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
24
4th Down Efficiency
4
19
RZ Efficiency
28
5
Steelers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
6
Yards / Game
6
23
Passing Yards / Game
25
17
Rushing Yards / Game
8
27
EPA
EPA / Play
6
9
EPA / Pass
7
7
EPA / Rush
3
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
23
Interceptions / Game
21
3
Fumbles / Game
4
1
Turnover EPA / Game
20
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
28
4th Down Efficiency
11
15
RZ Efficiency
16
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
5-3-2
ATS
4-6
O/U