KCChiefs
-
27
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
020
HOUTexans
-
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
14
13
0
0
27
Texans
6
3
0
11
20
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
330
398
Total Plays
67
74
Yards / Play
4.9
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.21
Passing Yards
233
300
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
26/48(54%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.13
Rushing Yards
97
98
Rush Attempts
32
21
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
24
Passing 1st downs
12
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
23%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.68
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-10
-36
Sack EPA
-3.25
-10.50
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
25
39
Penalty EPA
-1.76
-4.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-43
Home nfelo
1,477
Away nfelo
1,556
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-26.3
Home QB Adjustment
-27.3
Away QB Adjustment
-1.0
Market Regression
-2.6
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-27.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
10
Yards / Game
25
3
Passing Yards / Game
19
4
Rushing Yards / Game
6
11
EPA
EPA / Play
5
3
EPA / Pass
15
4
EPA / Rush
1
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
17
Interceptions / Game
1
14
Fumbles / Game
7
22
Turnover EPA / Game
30
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
1
4th Down Efficiency
2
24
RZ Efficiency
12
19
Texans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
1
Yards / Game
20
6
Passing Yards / Game
10
7
Rushing Yards / Game
16
6
EPA
EPA / Play
28
5
EPA / Pass
26
3
EPA / Rush
22
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
8
Interceptions / Game
21
2
Fumbles / Game
20
23
Turnover EPA / Game
17
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
5
4th Down Efficiency
32
15
RZ Efficiency
14
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U