KCChiefs
4-0
42
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
034
HOUTexans
2-2
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
20
0
13
36
Texans
0
7
6
21
34
Spread
-2
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
450
394
Total Plays
74
60
Yards / Play
6.1
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.29
+0.09
Passing Yards
323
248
Comp/Att
29/38(76%)
16/33(48%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.71
+0.35
Rushing Yards
127
146
Rush Attempts
35
24
Yards / Rush
3.6
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
20
Passing 1st downs
21
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
56%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.56
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-1
-13
Sack EPA
-0.90
-4.42
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
64
59
Penalty EPA
-5.61
-8.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model53.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-4
Home nfelo
1,459
Away nfelo
1,592
Home Field
+77.3
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+51.3
Home QB Adjustment
+66.7
Away QB Adjustment
+15.4
Market Regression
-26.9
Final Difference
-26.9
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.4
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+66.7
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
32
Yards / Game
6
20
Passing Yards / Game
3
22
Rushing Yards / Game
10
12
EPA
EPA / Play
3
30
EPA / Pass
5
25
EPA / Rush
5
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
2
Interceptions / Game
3
18
Fumbles / Game
5
31
Turnover EPA / Game
32
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
5
4th Down Efficiency
29
27
RZ Efficiency
29
27
Texans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
15
Yards / Game
20
29
Passing Yards / Game
12
2
Rushing Yards / Game
13
28
EPA
EPA / Play
21
24
EPA / Pass
25
19
EPA / Rush
12
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
17
Interceptions / Game
27
9
Fumbles / Game
28
21
Turnover EPA / Game
4
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
26
4th Down Efficiency
13
20
RZ Efficiency
20
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U