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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ texans week 5, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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KC logo
KCChiefs
4-0
42
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
34
HOUTexans
2-2
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
20
0
13
36
Texans
0
7
6
21
34

Spread

KC logo
-2

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
450
394
Total Plays
74
60
Yards / Play
6.1
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.29
+0.09
Passing Yards
323
248
Comp/Att
29/38(76%)
16/33(48%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.71
+0.35
Rushing Yards
127
146
Rush Attempts
35
24
Yards / Rush
3.6
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
29
20
Passing 1st downs
21
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
56%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.56
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-1
-13
Sack EPA
-0.90
-4.42
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
64
59
Penalty EPA
-5.61
-8.29

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-5
Home nfelo
1,458
Away nfelo
1,593
Home Field
+78.3
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+51.3
Home QB Adjustment
+66.7
Away QB Adjustment
+15.4
Market Regression
-32.8
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.4
Value
Ptile
12/04
2.7
71
12/08
-0.4
46
12/18
-3.9
20
12/25
8.6
94
01/01
6.3
87
01/15
-2.4
31
09/07
9.7
97
09/17
1.1
60
09/24
-2.2
37
10/02
7.1
91
D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+66.7
Value
Ptile
09/14
1.6
64
09/24
1.7
66
10/01
9.6
97

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Texans Defense
Chiefs logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
7
32
Yards / Game
6
20
Passing Yards / Game
3
22
Rushing Yards / Game
10
12

EPA

EPA / Play
3
30
EPA / Pass
5
25
EPA / Rush
5
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
2
Interceptions / Game
3
18
Fumbles / Game
5
31
Turnover EPA / Game
32
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
5
4th Down Efficiency
29
27
RZ Efficiency
29
27
Texans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Texans logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
17
15
Yards / Game
20
29
Passing Yards / Game
12
2
Rushing Yards / Game
13
28

EPA

EPA / Play
21
24
EPA / Pass
25
19
EPA / Rush
12
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
17
Interceptions / Game
27
9
Fumbles / Game
28
21
Turnover EPA / Game
4
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
26
4th Down Efficiency
13
20
RZ Efficiency
20
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
1
W
W
O
12/08
8
W
W
U
12/18
-2
L
L
U
12/25
23
W
W
O
01/01
10
W
W
O
01/15
-2
L
L
U
09/07
15
W
W
O
09/17
7
W
W
O
09/24
14
W
W
U
10/02
9
W
W
O
HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
5
W
W
U
12/18
1
W
L
O
12/24
2
W
L
U
01/01
-7
L
L
U
01/07
13
W
W
O
01/14
-18
L
L
O
09/10
-22
L
L
U
09/14
4
W
W
U
09/24
-3
L
W
O
10/01
43
W
W
O