KCChiefs
3-1
31
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
035
HOUTexans
3-2
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
7
10
7
31
Texans
0
7
7
21
35
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
417
421
Total Plays
68
57
Yards / Play
6.1
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.34
+0.43
Passing Yards
189
289
Comp/Att
20/29(69%)
25/33(76%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
8.8
EPA / Pass
+0.57
+0.46
Rushing Yards
228
132
Rush Attempts
38
22
Yards / Rush
6.0
6.0
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
23
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
56%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-12
-16
Sack EPA
-0.90
-2.99
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
35
53
Penalty EPA
-4.93
-6.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+125
Home nfelo
1,514
Away nfelo
1,444
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.1
Home QB Adjustment
-9.0
Away QB Adjustment
-1.9
Market Regression
-7.8
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-1.9
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-9.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
29
Yards / Game
16
29
Passing Yards / Game
31
30
Rushing Yards / Game
1
14
EPA
EPA / Play
16
32
EPA / Pass
13
32
EPA / Rush
7
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
21
Interceptions / Game
4
23
Fumbles / Game
15
32
Turnover EPA / Game
31
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
20
4th Down Efficiency
22
32
RZ Efficiency
7
31
Texans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
14
Yards / Game
3
16
Passing Yards / Game
13
22
Rushing Yards / Game
7
16
EPA
EPA / Play
2
18
EPA / Pass
5
17
EPA / Rush
4
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
20
Interceptions / Game
7
22
Fumbles / Game
3
30
Turnover EPA / Game
29
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
18
4th Down Efficiency
14
6
RZ Efficiency
5
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Texans
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U