KCChiefs
10-3
30
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
024
HOUTexans
1-11
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Chiefs
0
13
3
8
6
30
Texans
7
7
7
3
0
24
Spread
+14
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
504
219
Total Plays
77
58
Yards / Play
6.5
3.8
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.02
Passing Yards
315
125
Comp/Att
36/42(86%)
14/29(48%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
4.3
EPA / Pass
+0.27
-0.02
Rushing Yards
189
94
Rush Attempts
33
28
Yards / Rush
5.7
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
33
18
Passing 1st downs
20
8
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
50%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-10.90
-4.54
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-23
-4
Sack EPA
-4.18
-1.07
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
102
33
Penalty EPA
-12.35
-3.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-13.0
Win Probability
Market87.0%
Model85.3%
Spread Pick
Texans+14.0
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-277
Home nfelo
1,328
Away nfelo
1,638
Home Field
+55.0
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-21.7
Home QB Adjustment
-11.9
Away QB Adjustment
+9.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-304.7
Model Spread
+13.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
+9.7
D. Mills
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-11.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
27
Yards / Game
1
30
Passing Yards / Game
12
17
Rushing Yards / Game
20
32
EPA
EPA / Play
1
12
EPA / Pass
1
13
EPA / Rush
6
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
18
Interceptions / Game
7
7
Fumbles / Game
6
10
Turnover EPA / Game
27
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
14
4th Down Efficiency
2
26
RZ Efficiency
2
19
Texans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
18
Yards / Game
31
14
Passing Yards / Game
22
28
Rushing Yards / Game
31
8
EPA
EPA / Play
31
27
EPA / Pass
31
15
EPA / Rush
31
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
30
Interceptions / Game
31
21
Fumbles / Game
20
2
Turnover EPA / Game
3
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
22
4th Down Efficiency
16
24
RZ Efficiency
28
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
8-2
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Texans
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U