KCChiefs
11-5
30
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
00
HOUTexans
9-7
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
6
7
10
30
Texans
0
0
0
0
0
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
314
226
Total Plays
62
62
Yards / Play
5.1
3.6
EPA / Play
+0.17
-0.43
Passing Yards
173
112
Comp/Att
17/22(77%)
15/34(44%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
3.3
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.79
Rushing Yards
141
114
Rush Attempts
37
25
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
14
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
36%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
1
4
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.88
-20.77
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-17
-24
Sack EPA
-4.08
-10.13
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
52
29
Penalty EPA
-1.23
-3.44
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model54.1%
Spread Pick
Texans+3.0
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+7
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,575
Home Field
+79.0
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.5
Home QB Adjustment
-5.4
Away QB Adjustment
+8.1
Market Regression
+8.8
Final Difference
-28.5
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.1
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-5.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
10
Yards / Game
25
3
Passing Yards / Game
19
4
Rushing Yards / Game
6
11
EPA
EPA / Play
5
3
EPA / Pass
15
4
EPA / Rush
1
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
17
Interceptions / Game
1
14
Fumbles / Game
7
22
Turnover EPA / Game
30
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
1
4th Down Efficiency
2
24
RZ Efficiency
12
19
Texans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
1
Yards / Game
20
6
Passing Yards / Game
10
7
Rushing Yards / Game
16
6
EPA
EPA / Play
28
5
EPA / Pass
26
3
EPA / Rush
22
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
8
Interceptions / Game
21
2
Fumbles / Game
20
23
Turnover EPA / Game
17
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
5
4th Down Efficiency
32
15
RZ Efficiency
14
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
10-0
SU
7-3
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Texans
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U