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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ texans week 18, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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KC logo
KCChiefs
11-5
30
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
0
HOUTexans
9-7
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
6
7
10
30
Texans
0
0
0
0
0

Spread

KC logo
-3

Total

UNDER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
314
226
Total Plays
62
62
Yards / Play
5.1
3.6
EPA / Play
+0.17
-0.43
Passing Yards
173
112
Comp/Att
17/22(77%)
15/34(44%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
3.3
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.79
Rushing Yards
141
114
Rush Attempts
37
25
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
18
14
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
36%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
1
4
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.88
-20.77
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-17
-24
Sack EPA
-4.08
-10.13
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
52
29
Penalty EPA
-1.23
-3.44

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model53.9%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+10
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,574
Home Field
+80.0
Base HFA
+59.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.5
Home QB Adjustment
-5.4
Away QB Adjustment
+8.1
Market Regression
+8.8
Final Difference
-27.3
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.1
Value
Ptile
10/25
-0.0
51
11/01
5.5
84
11/15
0.6
54
11/22
0.5
54
11/29
5.5
85
12/06
1.3
60
12/13
-1.4
41
12/20
-0.5
48
12/27
1.1
57
01/03
-0.6
47
B. Hoyer headshot

B. Hoyer

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-5.4
Value
Ptile
12/07
-9.9
3
09/13
-4.9
16
10/18
5.3
83
10/25
-3.8
22
11/01
1.0
57
11/16
-6.2
10
11/29
-1.1
43
12/06
3.2
75
12/13
-8.2
3
01/03
-3.0
28

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Texans Defense
Chiefs logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
9
10
Yards / Game
25
3
Passing Yards / Game
19
4
Rushing Yards / Game
6
11

EPA

EPA / Play
5
3
EPA / Pass
15
4
EPA / Rush
1
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
17
Interceptions / Game
1
14
Fumbles / Game
7
22
Turnover EPA / Game
30
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
1
4th Down Efficiency
2
24
RZ Efficiency
12
19
Texans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Texans logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
26
1
Yards / Game
20
6
Passing Yards / Game
10
7
Rushing Yards / Game
16
6

EPA

EPA / Play
28
5
EPA / Pass
26
3
EPA / Rush
22
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
8
Interceptions / Game
21
2
Fumbles / Game
20
23
Turnover EPA / Game
17
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
5
4th Down Efficiency
32
15
RZ Efficiency
14
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

10-0
SU
7-3
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
10
W
W
U
11/01
35
W
W
O
11/15
16
W
W
P
11/22
30
W
W
U
11/29
8
W
W
O
12/06
14
W
W
O
12/13
7
W
L
U
12/20
20
W
W
O
12/27
4
W
L
U
01/03
6
W
L
U
HOU logo

Texans

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
-18
L
L
O
11/01
14
W
W
U
11/16
4
W
W
U
11/22
7
W
W
O
11/29
18
W
W
U
12/06
-9
L
L
O
12/13
-21
L
L
U
12/20
6
W
W
U
12/27
28
W
W
O
01/03
24
W
W
U