KCChiefs
3-1
27
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
020
MINVikings
1-3
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
6
14
0
27
Vikings
3
10
0
7
20
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
333
329
Total Plays
64
68
Yards / Play
5.2
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.03
Passing Yards
266
259
Comp/Att
31/41(76%)
29/47(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.36
-0.07
Rushing Yards
67
70
Rush Attempts
21
18
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.19
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
24
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
60%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.86
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-15
-25
Sack EPA
-3.08
-4.77
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
86
51
Penalty EPA
-10.01
-6.22
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-56
Home nfelo
1,500
Away nfelo
1,620
Home Field
+58.0
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.9
Home QB Adjustment
+8.0
Away QB Adjustment
+1.1
Market Regression
+33.9
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
12
Yards / Game
8
16
Passing Yards / Game
11
28
Rushing Yards / Game
17
6
EPA
EPA / Play
10
16
EPA / Pass
13
21
EPA / Rush
16
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
10
Interceptions / Game
21
19
Fumbles / Game
21
8
Turnover EPA / Game
12
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
24
4th Down Efficiency
12
32
RZ Efficiency
20
14
Vikings Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
2
Yards / Game
11
5
Passing Yards / Game
2
11
Rushing Yards / Game
29
17
EPA
EPA / Play
21
7
EPA / Pass
17
4
EPA / Rush
17
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
31
Interceptions / Game
29
27
Fumbles / Game
29
5
Turnover EPA / Game
5
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
5
4th Down Efficiency
8
19
RZ Efficiency
29
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U