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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ vikings week 6, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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KC logo
KCChiefs
1-4
10
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
54°F
10 mph
16
MINVikings
2-2
MIN logo
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
54°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
0
0
10
10
Vikings
3
7
3
3
16

Spread

MIN logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
328
321
Total Plays
57
68
Yards / Play
5.8
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.05
Passing Yards
271
237
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
17/31(55%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.16
+0.01
Rushing Yards
57
84
Rush Attempts
18
35
Yards / Rush
3.2
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.65
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
16
16
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
2
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
25%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.01
-6.52
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-11
-12
Sack EPA
-3.82
-2.92
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
95
50
Penalty EPA
-13.49
-1.83

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+101
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+102.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+5.6
Home QB Adjustment
-0.6
Away QB Adjustment
-6.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-6.2
Value
Ptile
11/20
-0.8
44
11/30
-7.3
10
12/07
-0.9
44
12/14
4.0
77
12/21
-2.5
32
09/13
4.4
80
09/17
-7.2
7
09/28
-4.0
21
10/04
1.9
64
10/11
-3.4
26
T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
Value
Ptile
11/23
-0.1
49
11/30
-1.6
38
12/07
0.9
56
12/14
1.5
61
12/21
-0.1
49
12/28
-3.5
28
09/14
-3.8
22
09/20
2.6
70
09/27
-6.3
10
10/04
-1.4
41

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Vikings Defense
Chiefs logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
9
5
Yards / Game
25
9
Passing Yards / Game
19
26
Rushing Yards / Game
6
17

EPA

EPA / Play
5
12
EPA / Pass
15
11
EPA / Rush
1
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
6
Interceptions / Game
1
16
Fumbles / Game
7
25
Turnover EPA / Game
30
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
4
4th Down Efficiency
2
10
RZ Efficiency
12
5
Vikings Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Vikings logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
19
1
Yards / Game
29
6
Passing Yards / Game
31
7
Rushing Yards / Game
5
6

EPA

EPA / Play
11
5
EPA / Pass
24
3
EPA / Rush
4
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
8
Interceptions / Game
4
2
Fumbles / Game
13
23
Turnover EPA / Game
29
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
5
4th Down Efficiency
15
15
RZ Efficiency
25
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/30
-13
L
L
U
12/07
-3
L
L
U
12/14
18
W
W
O
12/21
-8
L
L
U
12/28
12
W
W
U
09/13
7
W
W
O
09/17
-7
L
L
O
09/28
-10
L
L
O
10/04
-15
L
L
O
10/11
-1
L
L
U
MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
-3
L
W
U
11/30
18
W
W
O
12/07
6
W
W
O
12/14
-2
L
W
U
12/21
-2
L
W
O
12/28
4
W
L
U
09/14
-17
L
L
U
09/20
10
W
W
U
09/27
17
W
W
U
10/04
-3
L
W
U