KCChiefs
1-4
10
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
54°F
10 mph
16
MINVikings
2-2
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
54°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
0
0
10
10
Vikings
3
7
3
3
16
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
328
321
Total Plays
57
68
Yards / Play
5.8
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.05
Passing Yards
271
237
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
17/31(55%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.16
+0.01
Rushing Yards
57
84
Rush Attempts
18
35
Yards / Rush
3.2
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.65
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
16
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
2
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
25%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.01
-6.52
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-11
-12
Sack EPA
-3.82
-2.92
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
95
50
Penalty EPA
-13.49
-1.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+100
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+102.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+5.6
Home QB Adjustment
-0.6
Away QB Adjustment
-6.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-6.2
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
5
Yards / Game
25
9
Passing Yards / Game
19
26
Rushing Yards / Game
6
17
EPA
EPA / Play
5
12
EPA / Pass
15
11
EPA / Rush
1
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
6
Interceptions / Game
1
16
Fumbles / Game
7
25
Turnover EPA / Game
30
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
4
4th Down Efficiency
2
10
RZ Efficiency
12
5
Vikings Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
1
Yards / Game
29
6
Passing Yards / Game
31
7
Rushing Yards / Game
5
6
EPA
EPA / Play
11
5
EPA / Pass
24
3
EPA / Rush
4
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
8
Interceptions / Game
4
2
Fumbles / Game
13
23
Turnover EPA / Game
29
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
5
4th Down Efficiency
15
15
RZ Efficiency
25
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Vikings
5-5
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U