INDColts
1-1
27
TBD
Candlestick Park
66°F
5 mph
7
SF49ers
1-1
TBD
Candlestick Park
66°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
3
3
14
27
49ers
7
0
0
0
7
Spread
+10.5
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
336
254
Total Plays
67
53
Yards / Play
5.0
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.21
Passing Yards
152
139
Comp/Att
17/26(65%)
13/27(48%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.36
Rushing Yards
184
115
Rush Attempts
40
23
Yards / Rush
4.6
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.16
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
14
Passing 1st downs
9
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
5
--
3rd Down %
42%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.90
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-11
Sack EPA
-1.64
-6.91
Penalties
1
6
Penalty Yards
--
48
Penalty EPA
--
-5.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model82.2%
Spread Pick
49ers-10.5
Expected Value
+1.6%
Cover Probability
53.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+296
Home nfelo
1,615
Away nfelo
1,430
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+3.9
Home QB Adjustment
+9.8
Away QB Adjustment
+5.9
Market Regression
+1.6
Final Difference
266.1
Model Spread
-11.5
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+5.9
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
3
Yards / Game
11
5
Passing Yards / Game
11
15
Rushing Yards / Game
21
4
EPA
EPA / Play
10
4
EPA / Pass
16
7
EPA / Rush
6
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
22
Interceptions / Game
17
13
Fumbles / Game
2
26
Turnover EPA / Game
22
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
10
4th Down Efficiency
22
13
RZ Efficiency
10
6
49ers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
14
Yards / Game
24
22
Passing Yards / Game
26
21
Rushing Yards / Game
3
30
EPA
EPA / Play
11
20
EPA / Pass
7
21
EPA / Rush
17
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
27
Interceptions / Game
4
21
Fumbles / Game
26
14
Turnover EPA / Game
31
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
23
4th Down Efficiency
5
18
RZ Efficiency
16
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
49ers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U