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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ bears week 1, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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IND logo
INDColts
-
21
TBD
Soldier Field
67°F
13 mph
41
CHIBears
-
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
67°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
1
7
0
7
15
Bears
7
17
10
7
41

Spread

CHI logo
-10

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
356
428
Total Plays
63
70
Yards / Play
5.7
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.13
Passing Yards
293
314
Comp/Att
23/45(51%)
21/35(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
9.0
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.24
Rushing Yards
63
114
Rush Attempts
15
33
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
22
26
Passing 1st downs
16
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
20%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
5
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-22.08
-6.66
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-16
-19
Sack EPA
-7.82
-3.63
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
--
48
Penalty EPA
--
-6.53

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+220
Home nfelo
1,544
Away nfelo
1,401
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+4.3
Home QB Adjustment
+9.5
Away QB Adjustment
+5.2
Market Regression
-24.5
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
No recent game data available
J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.5
Value
Ptile
09/11
-0.1
51
09/18
-7.1
9
09/25
-0.9
45
10/02
-6.1
13
10/10
2.2
67
10/16
4.9
81
10/23
-5.1
18
11/07
3.2
73
11/13
-3.8
26
11/20
5.3
83

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Bears Defense
Colts logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
20
2
Yards / Game
10
5
Passing Yards / Game
5
24
Rushing Yards / Game
18
7

EPA

EPA / Play
16
1
EPA / Pass
17
1
EPA / Rush
11
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
8
Interceptions / Game
26
1
Fumbles / Game
11
1
Turnover EPA / Game
7
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
5
4th Down Efficiency
2
26
RZ Efficiency
21
12
Bears Offense vs Colts Defense
Bears logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
15
21
Yards / Game
28
27
Passing Yards / Game
26
10
Rushing Yards / Game
10
29

EPA

EPA / Play
24
26
EPA / Pass
26
27
EPA / Rush
18
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
9
Interceptions / Game
18
22
Fumbles / Game
13
30
Turnover EPA / Game
22
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
15
4th Down Efficiency
25
9
RZ Efficiency
22
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
-55
L
L
O
10/30
-17
L
L
U
11/06
-24
L
L
U
11/13
-14
L
L
U
11/27
-8
L
L
U
12/04
-7
L
W
O
12/11
-14
L
W
U
12/18
14
W
W
U
12/22
3
W
W
U
01/01
-6
L
L
U
CHI logo

Bears

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
6
W
W
U
11/07
6
W
W
O
11/13
24
W
W
O
11/20
11
W
W
O
11/27
-5
L
L
O
12/04
-7
L
L
U
12/11
-3
L
W
U
12/18
-24
L
L
O
12/25
-14
L
L
O
01/01
4
W
W
U