INDColts
-
21
TBD
Soldier Field
67°F
13 mph
41
CHIBears
-
TBD
Soldier Field
67°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
1
7
0
7
15
Bears
7
17
10
7
41
Spread
-10
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
356
428
Total Plays
63
70
Yards / Play
5.7
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.13
Passing Yards
293
314
Comp/Att
23/45(51%)
21/35(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
9.0
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.24
Rushing Yards
63
114
Rush Attempts
15
33
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
26
Passing 1st downs
16
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
20%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-22.08
-6.66
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-16
-19
Sack EPA
-7.82
-3.63
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
--
48
Penalty EPA
--
-6.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+227
Home nfelo
1,547
Away nfelo
1,397
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+4.3
Home QB Adjustment
+9.5
Away QB Adjustment
+5.2
Market Regression
-24.5
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
No recent game data available
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
2
Yards / Game
10
5
Passing Yards / Game
5
24
Rushing Yards / Game
18
7
EPA
EPA / Play
16
1
EPA / Pass
17
1
EPA / Rush
11
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
8
Interceptions / Game
26
1
Fumbles / Game
11
1
Turnover EPA / Game
7
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
5
4th Down Efficiency
2
26
RZ Efficiency
21
12
Bears Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
21
Yards / Game
28
27
Passing Yards / Game
26
10
Rushing Yards / Game
10
29
EPA
EPA / Play
24
26
EPA / Pass
26
27
EPA / Rush
18
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
9
Interceptions / Game
18
22
Fumbles / Game
13
30
Turnover EPA / Game
22
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
15
4th Down Efficiency
25
9
RZ Efficiency
22
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Bears
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U