INDColts
7-5
14
TBD
Paycor Stadium
40°F
9 mph
34
CINBengals
6-6
TBD
Paycor Stadium
40°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
8
0
0
8
Bengals
7
7
14
6
34
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
274
385
Total Plays
61
57
Yards / Play
4.5
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.17
+0.22
Passing Yards
228
--
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
19/25(76%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
--
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.25
Rushing Yards
46
111
Rush Attempts
18
32
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
27%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
33%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.55
-3.02
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-14
--
Sack EPA
-5.00
--
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
66
40
Penalty EPA
-7.83
-5.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
+2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+43
Home nfelo
1,547
Away nfelo
1,453
Home Field
+45.4
Base HFA
+45.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-96.8
Home QB Adjustment
-86.7
Away QB Adjustment
+10.1
Market Regression
+56.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
+10.1
J. Browning
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-86.7
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
20
Yards / Game
14
31
Passing Yards / Game
14
30
Rushing Yards / Game
10
26
EPA
EPA / Play
17
26
EPA / Pass
16
25
EPA / Rush
21
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
7
Interceptions / Game
6
5
Fumbles / Game
16
21
Turnover EPA / Game
19
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
23
4th Down Efficiency
16
8
RZ Efficiency
23
10
Bengals Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
28
Yards / Game
23
24
Passing Yards / Game
9
25
Rushing Yards / Game
32
24
EPA
EPA / Play
12
19
EPA / Pass
15
15
EPA / Rush
15
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
18
Interceptions / Game
19
14
Fumbles / Game
1
8
Turnover EPA / Game
25
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
11
4th Down Efficiency
25
30
RZ Efficiency
10
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U