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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ bengals week 14, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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IND logo
INDColts
7-5
14
TBD
Paycor Stadium
40°F
9 mph
34
CINBengals
6-6
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
40°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
8
0
0
8
Bengals
7
7
14
6
34

Spread

CIN logo
-3

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
274
385
Total Plays
61
57
Yards / Play
4.5
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.17
+0.22
Passing Yards
228
--
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
19/25(76%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
--
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.25
Rushing Yards
46
111
Rush Attempts
18
32
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
27%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
33%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.55
-3.02
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-14
--
Sack EPA
-5.00
--
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
66
40
Penalty EPA
-7.83
-5.02

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
+2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+42
Home nfelo
1,546
Away nfelo
1,452
Home Field
+45.3
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-98.1
Home QB Adjustment
-87.5
Away QB Adjustment
+10.6
Market Regression
+56.5
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

G. Minshew headshot

G. Minshew

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.6
Value
Ptile
12/24
6.0
89
01/01
-5.5
14
09/24
-3.5
26
10/15
-5.5
16
10/22
6.9
90
10/29
-1.4
40
11/05
-2.2
34
11/12
-2.3
33
11/26
-2.8
31
12/03
2.1
64
J. Browning headshot

J. Browning

Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-87.5
Value
Ptile
11/26
-1.9
36
12/04
9.8
97

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Bengals Defense
Colts logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
11
20
Yards / Game
14
31
Passing Yards / Game
14
30
Rushing Yards / Game
10
26

EPA

EPA / Play
17
26
EPA / Pass
16
25
EPA / Rush
21
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
7
Interceptions / Game
6
5
Fumbles / Game
16
21
Turnover EPA / Game
19
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
23
4th Down Efficiency
16
8
RZ Efficiency
23
10
Bengals Offense vs Colts Defense
Bengals logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
16
28
Yards / Game
23
24
Passing Yards / Game
9
25
Rushing Yards / Game
32
24

EPA

EPA / Play
12
19
EPA / Pass
15
15
EPA / Rush
15
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
18
Interceptions / Game
19
14
Fumbles / Game
1
8
Turnover EPA / Game
25
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
11
4th Down Efficiency
25
30
RZ Efficiency
10
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/24
3
W
W
U
10/01
-6
L
L
O
10/08
7
W
W
U
10/15
-17
L
L
O
10/22
-1
L
W
O
10/29
-11
L
L
O
11/05
14
W
W
U
11/12
4
W
W
U
11/26
7
W
W
O
12/03
3
W
W
O
CIN logo

Bengals

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/25
3
W
P
U
10/01
-24
L
L
U
10/08
14
W
W
O
10/15
4
W
W
U
10/29
14
W
W
O
11/05
6
W
W
U
11/12
-3
L
L
O
11/16
-14
L
L
O
11/26
-6
L
L
U
12/04
3
W
W
O