INDColts
-
14
TBD
New Era Field
56°F
15 mph
27
BUFBills
-
TBD
New Era Field
56°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
0
8
6
14
Bills
7
10
7
3
27
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
306
342
Total Plays
70
55
Yards / Play
4.4
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.05
+0.16
Passing Yards
242
--
Comp/Att
26/51(51%)
14/19(74%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
--
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.52
Rushing Yards
64
147
Rush Attempts
17
36
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
15
Passing 1st downs
16
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
53%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.31
+5.29
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-3
--
Sack EPA
-2.31
--
Penalties
5
11
Penalty Yards
49
113
Penalty EPA
-5.22
-5.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model51.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+17
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,544
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-22.8
Home QB Adjustment
-20.2
Away QB Adjustment
+2.6
Market Regression
-0.2
Final Difference
-9.3
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+2.6
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-20.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
15
Yards / Game
28
20
Passing Yards / Game
20
22
Rushing Yards / Game
29
16
EPA
EPA / Play
27
16
EPA / Pass
25
15
EPA / Rush
32
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
11
Interceptions / Game
28
6
Fumbles / Game
15
15
Turnover EPA / Game
3
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
23
4th Down Efficiency
11
1
RZ Efficiency
20
17
Bills Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
25
Yards / Game
13
27
Passing Yards / Game
28
23
Rushing Yards / Game
1
25
EPA
EPA / Play
12
14
EPA / Pass
14
18
EPA / Rush
2
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
15
Interceptions / Game
5
6
Fumbles / Game
11
15
Turnover EPA / Game
32
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
19
4th Down Efficiency
24
30
RZ Efficiency
26
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Bills
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U