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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ bills week 1, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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IND logo
INDColts
-
14
TBD
New Era Field
56°F
15 mph
27
BUFBills
-
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
56°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
0
8
6
14
Bills
7
10
7
3
27

Spread

BUF logo
+1

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
306
342
Total Plays
70
55
Yards / Play
4.4
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.05
+0.16
Passing Yards
242
--
Comp/Att
26/51(51%)
14/19(74%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
--
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.52
Rushing Yards
64
147
Rush Attempts
17
36
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
23
15
Passing 1st downs
16
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
53%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.31
+5.29
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-3
--
Sack EPA
-2.31
--
Penalties
5
11
Penalty Yards
49
113
Penalty EPA
-5.22
-5.56

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model50.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+20
Home nfelo
1,519
Away nfelo
1,538
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-22.8
Home QB Adjustment
-20.2
Away QB Adjustment
+2.6
Market Regression
+1.3
Final Difference
-2.1
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+2.6
Value
Ptile
11/16
2.7
69
11/23
0.3
51
11/30
10.0
96
12/07
-0.6
46
12/14
-2.6
31
12/21
-6.8
12
12/28
0.6
54
01/04
8.1
91
01/11
2.5
68
01/18
-9.3
5
M. Cassel headshot

M. Cassel

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-20.2
Value
Ptile
11/18
-4.9
19
09/29
4.1
79
10/13
-1.3
43
12/08
2.3
67
12/15
8.1
92
12/22
-11.2
2
12/29
-4.2
23
09/07
1.9
64
09/14
-13.2
0
09/21
-5.0
20

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Bills Defense
Colts logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
23
15
Yards / Game
28
20
Passing Yards / Game
20
22
Rushing Yards / Game
29
16

EPA

EPA / Play
27
16
EPA / Pass
25
15
EPA / Rush
32
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
11
Interceptions / Game
28
6
Fumbles / Game
15
15
Turnover EPA / Game
3
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
23
4th Down Efficiency
11
1
RZ Efficiency
20
17
Bills Offense vs Colts Defense
Bills logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
12
25
Yards / Game
13
27
Passing Yards / Game
28
23
Rushing Yards / Game
1
25

EPA

EPA / Play
12
14
EPA / Pass
14
18
EPA / Rush
2
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
15
Interceptions / Game
5
6
Fumbles / Game
11
15
Turnover EPA / Game
32
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
19
4th Down Efficiency
24
30
RZ Efficiency
26
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/16
-22
L
L
O
11/23
20
W
W
U
11/30
22
W
W
O
12/07
1
W
L
U
12/14
7
W
P
U
12/21
-35
L
L
U
12/28
17
W
W
U
01/04
16
W
W
U
01/11
11
W
W
U
01/18
-38
L
L
P
BUF logo

Bills

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
1
W
L
U
10/26
20
W
W
O
11/09
-4
L
L
U
11/13
-13
L
L
U
11/24
35
W
W
U
11/30
16
W
W
U
12/07
-7
L
W
U
12/14
8
W
W
U
12/21
-2
L
L
O
12/28
8
W
W
U