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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ bills week 11, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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IND logo
INDColts
5-5
41
TBD
New Era Field
49°F
12 mph
15
BUFBills
6-3
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
49°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
14
10
14
3
41
Bills
0
7
0
8
15

Spread

IND logo
+7

Total

OVER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
370
313
Total Plays
66
55
Yards / Play
5.6
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.31
-0.25
Passing Yards
--
220
Comp/Att
11/20(55%)
24/40(60%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.28
-0.11
Rushing Yards
264
93
Rush Attempts
46
14
Yards / Rush
5.7
6.6
EPA / Rush
+0.26
+0.37
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
28
19
Passing 1st downs
6
13
Rushing 1st downs
18
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
67%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-18.82
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
--
-1.35
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
30
56
Penalty EPA
-4.65
-11.67

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+166
Home nfelo
1,661
Away nfelo
1,541
Home Field
+39.8
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.6
Home QB Adjustment
+7.8
Away QB Adjustment
+1.2
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.2
Value
Ptile
09/12
2.2
69
09/19
0.4
55
09/26
-6.8
11
10/03
2.2
69
10/11
7.3
92
10/17
-2.2
36
10/24
2.7
73
10/31
-3.4
28
11/04
4.9
84
11/14
-4.9
20
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
Value
Ptile
01/24
3.1
67
09/12
2.3
70
09/19
-1.5
42
09/26
13.9
99
10/03
2.1
69
10/10
9.6
96
10/18
4.9
83
10/31
8.9
95
11/07
-5.3
17
11/14
2.3
70

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Bills Defense
Colts logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
8
1
Yards / Game
16
1
Passing Yards / Game
18
5
Rushing Yards / Game
2
16

EPA

EPA / Play
8
3
EPA / Pass
18
2
EPA / Rush
2
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
32
Interceptions / Game
4
4
Fumbles / Game
20
10
Turnover EPA / Game
28
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
1
4th Down Efficiency
6
15
RZ Efficiency
19
10
Bills Offense vs Colts Defense
Bills logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
3
11
Yards / Game
5
17
Passing Yards / Game
30
21
Rushing Yards / Game
6
12

EPA

EPA / Play
2
12
EPA / Pass
5
21
EPA / Rush
1
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
22
Interceptions / Game
19
3
Fumbles / Game
10
1
Turnover EPA / Game
26
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
18
4th Down Efficiency
12
18
RZ Efficiency
2
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
-12
L
L
U
09/19
-3
L
W
O
09/26
-9
L
L
U
10/03
10
W
W
O
10/11
-6
L
W
O
10/17
28
W
W
U
10/24
12
W
W
O
10/31
-3
L
L
O
11/04
15
W
W
O
11/14
6
W
L
U
BUF logo

Bills

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/24
-14
L
L
O
09/12
-7
L
L
U
09/19
35
W
W
U
09/26
22
W
W
O
10/03
40
W
W
U
10/10
18
W
W
O
10/18
-3
L
L
O
10/31
15
W
P
U
11/07
-3
L
L
U
11/14
28
W
W
O