INDColts
5-5
41
TBD
New Era Field
49°F
12 mph
15
BUFBills
6-3
TBD
New Era Field
49°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
14
10
14
3
41
Bills
0
7
0
8
15
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
370
313
Total Plays
66
55
Yards / Play
5.6
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.31
-0.25
Passing Yards
--
220
Comp/Att
11/20(55%)
24/40(60%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.28
-0.11
Rushing Yards
264
93
Rush Attempts
46
14
Yards / Rush
5.7
6.6
EPA / Rush
+0.26
+0.37
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
19
Passing 1st downs
6
13
Rushing 1st downs
18
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
67%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-18.82
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
--
-1.35
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
30
56
Penalty EPA
-4.65
-11.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+166
Home nfelo
1,661
Away nfelo
1,541
Home Field
+39.8
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.6
Home QB Adjustment
+7.8
Away QB Adjustment
+1.2
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+1.2
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
1
Yards / Game
16
1
Passing Yards / Game
18
5
Rushing Yards / Game
2
16
EPA
EPA / Play
8
3
EPA / Pass
18
2
EPA / Rush
2
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
32
Interceptions / Game
4
4
Fumbles / Game
20
10
Turnover EPA / Game
28
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
1
4th Down Efficiency
6
15
RZ Efficiency
19
10
Bills Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
11
Yards / Game
5
17
Passing Yards / Game
30
21
Rushing Yards / Game
6
12
EPA
EPA / Play
2
12
EPA / Pass
5
21
EPA / Rush
1
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
22
Interceptions / Game
19
3
Fumbles / Game
10
1
Turnover EPA / Game
26
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
18
4th Down Efficiency
12
18
RZ Efficiency
2
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U