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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ broncos week 3, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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IND logo
INDColts
1-1
27
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
85°F
6 mph
13
DENBroncos
1-1
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
85°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
6
7
7
7
27
Broncos
0
3
10
0
13

Spread

IND logo
-6

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
365
519
Total Plays
65
76
Yards / Play
5.6
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.26
-0.02
Passing Yards
--
472
Comp/Att
27/43(63%)
37/57(65%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.43
+0.11
Rushing Yards
40
47
Rush Attempts
22
18
Yards / Rush
1.8
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.40
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
15
20
Rushing 1st downs
3
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
43%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+6.03
-6.57
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-4
Sack EPA
--
-1.16
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
27
60
Penalty EPA
-4.40
-2.41

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model61.9%
Spread Pick
DEN logo
Broncos+6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.6%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-34
Home nfelo
1,464
Away nfelo
1,591
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-13.9
Home QB Adjustment
+10.3
Away QB Adjustment
+24.2
Market Regression
-1.7
Final Difference
-84.4
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+24.2
Value
Ptile
12/06
3.4
73
12/13
-1.0
44
12/17
8.3
93
12/27
2.7
67
01/03
-1.3
41
01/16
3.3
71
01/24
10.3
97
02/07
6.0
86
09/12
11.9
99
09/19
6.6
90
K. Orton headshot

K. Orton

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+10.3
Value
Ptile
11/09
-5.7
16
11/15
4.3
78
11/26
0.5
53
12/06
-3.6
26
12/13
3.2
71
12/20
0.4
53
12/27
1.8
62
01/03
0.1
50
09/12
-0.2
48
09/19
6.0
87

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Broncos Defense
Colts logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
4
32
Yards / Game
6
32
Passing Yards / Game
8
4
Rushing Yards / Game
29
31

EPA

EPA / Play
3
31
EPA / Pass
4
30
EPA / Rush
13
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
10
Interceptions / Game
16
31
Fumbles / Game
7
22
Turnover EPA / Game
21
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
16
4th Down Efficiency
7
27
RZ Efficiency
1
26
Broncos Offense vs Colts Defense
Broncos logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
19
23
Yards / Game
11
20
Passing Yards / Game
5
15
Rushing Yards / Game
26
27

EPA

EPA / Play
17
29
EPA / Pass
12
21
EPA / Rush
30
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
31
Interceptions / Game
7
30
Fumbles / Game
26
21
Turnover EPA / Game
16
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
23
4th Down Efficiency
30
12
RZ Efficiency
13
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
10
W
W
U
12/13
12
W
W
O
12/17
4
W
W
O
12/27
-14
L
L
O
01/03
-23
L
L
O
01/16
17
W
W
U
01/24
13
W
W
O
02/07
-14
L
L
U
09/12
-10
L
L
O
09/19
24
W
W
O
DEN logo

Broncos

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
-10
L
L
O
11/22
-29
L
L
U
11/26
20
W
W
U
12/06
31
W
W
O
12/13
-12
L
L
O
12/20
-1
L
L
O
12/27
-3
L
W
O
01/03
-20
L
L
O
09/12
-7
L
L
U
09/19
17
W
W
O