INDColts
1-1
27
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
85°F
6 mph
13
DENBroncos
1-1
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
85°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
6
7
7
7
27
Broncos
0
3
10
0
13
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
365
519
Total Plays
65
76
Yards / Play
5.6
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.26
-0.02
Passing Yards
--
472
Comp/Att
27/43(63%)
37/57(65%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.43
+0.11
Rushing Yards
40
47
Rush Attempts
22
18
Yards / Rush
1.8
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.40
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
15
20
Rushing 1st downs
3
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
43%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+6.03
-6.57
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-4
Sack EPA
--
-1.16
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
27
60
Penalty EPA
-4.40
-2.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
Broncos+6.0
Expected Value
+7.6%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-38
Home nfelo
1,464
Away nfelo
1,595
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-13.9
Home QB Adjustment
+10.3
Away QB Adjustment
+24.2
Market Regression
+4.0
Final Difference
-89.1
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+24.2
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+10.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
32
Yards / Game
6
32
Passing Yards / Game
8
4
Rushing Yards / Game
29
31
EPA
EPA / Play
3
31
EPA / Pass
4
30
EPA / Rush
13
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
10
Interceptions / Game
16
31
Fumbles / Game
7
22
Turnover EPA / Game
21
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
16
4th Down Efficiency
7
27
RZ Efficiency
1
26
Broncos Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
23
Yards / Game
11
20
Passing Yards / Game
5
15
Rushing Yards / Game
26
27
EPA
EPA / Play
17
29
EPA / Pass
12
21
EPA / Rush
30
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
31
Interceptions / Game
7
30
Fumbles / Game
26
21
Turnover EPA / Game
16
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
23
4th Down Efficiency
30
12
RZ Efficiency
13
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Broncos
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U