INDColts
12-5
24
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
40°F
7 mph
13
DENBroncos
12-4
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
40°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
14
7
3
24
Broncos
7
3
0
3
13
Spread
+9.5
Total
UNDER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
364
288
Total Plays
71
68
Yards / Play
5.1
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.18
Passing Yards
--
200
Comp/Att
27/43(63%)
26/46(57%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.3
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.35
Rushing Yards
99
88
Rush Attempts
28
20
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
19
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
38%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.80
-4.35
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-11
Sack EPA
--
-5.36
Penalties
10
2
Penalty Yards
67
--
Penalty EPA
-9.13
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+244
Home nfelo
1,716
Away nfelo
1,586
Home Field
+124.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-33.1
Home QB Adjustment
-24.6
Away QB Adjustment
+8.4
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+8.4
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-24.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
17
Yards / Game
3
3
Passing Yards / Game
1
5
Rushing Yards / Game
22
2
EPA
EPA / Play
10
10
EPA / Pass
9
9
EPA / Rush
30
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
31
Interceptions / Game
24
6
Fumbles / Game
30
28
Turnover EPA / Game
5
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
6
4th Down Efficiency
22
26
RZ Efficiency
12
25
Broncos Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
18
Yards / Game
5
9
Passing Yards / Game
4
3
Rushing Yards / Game
15
19
EPA
EPA / Play
7
11
EPA / Pass
5
5
EPA / Rush
9
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
28
Interceptions / Game
16
25
Fumbles / Game
5
3
Turnover EPA / Game
27
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
3
4th Down Efficiency
17
5
RZ Efficiency
4
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Broncos
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U