INDColts
8-4
25
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
37°F
10 mph
24
CLEBrowns
7-5
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
37°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
7
9
9
25
Browns
1
7
1
3
12
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
362
248
Total Plays
78
63
Yards / Play
4.6
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.29
Passing Yards
269
133
Comp/Att
24/55(44%)
13/30(43%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
4.4
EPA / Pass
-0.48
-0.39
Rushing Yards
93
115
Rush Attempts
20
32
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.34
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
14
Passing 1st downs
14
7
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
31%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-22.74
-5.49
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-25
-3
Sack EPA
-8.81
-1.09
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
40
85
Penalty EPA
-3.85
-7.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-61
Home nfelo
1,479
Away nfelo
1,586
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-38.6
Home QB Adjustment
-6.4
Away QB Adjustment
+32.3
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+32.3
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
9
Yards / Game
3
22
Passing Yards / Game
1
17
Rushing Yards / Game
22
32
EPA
EPA / Play
10
8
EPA / Pass
9
3
EPA / Rush
30
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
20
Interceptions / Game
24
2
Fumbles / Game
30
16
Turnover EPA / Game
5
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
11
4th Down Efficiency
22
29
RZ Efficiency
12
6
Browns Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
18
Yards / Game
23
9
Passing Yards / Game
22
3
Rushing Yards / Game
16
19
EPA
EPA / Play
27
11
EPA / Pass
22
5
EPA / Rush
23
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
28
Interceptions / Game
19
25
Fumbles / Game
4
3
Turnover EPA / Game
25
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
3
4th Down Efficiency
27
5
RZ Efficiency
23
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Browns
6-4
SU
4-4-2
ATS
3-7
O/U