
INDColts
2-0
31
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
010
ARICardinals
1-1

TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
21
7
3
31
Cardinals
3
0
7
0
10
Spread

+3
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General


Total Yards
505
323
Total Plays
66
70
Yards / Play
7.7
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.22
Passing Yards
--
299
Comp/Att
24/35(69%)
32/54(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.54
-0.11
Rushing Yards
126
24
Rush Attempts
31
12
Yards / Rush
4.1
2.0
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.80
Downs & Conversions


1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
15
18
Rushing 1st downs
6
--
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
27%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
40%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays


Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.76
-13.87
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-40
Sack EPA
--
-9.63
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
69
35
Penalty EPA
-7.91
-9.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner

ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+42
Home nfelo
1,542
Away nfelo
1,604
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-1.9
Home QB Adjustment
+12.8
Away QB Adjustment
+14.6
Market Regression
+50.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks

P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+14.6

K. Warner
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Cardinals Defense


Total
Points / Game
7
20
Yards / Game
8
24
Passing Yards / Game
28
20
Rushing Yards / Game
32
16
EPA
EPA / Play
3
15
EPA / Pass
4
15
EPA / Rush
27
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
28
Interceptions / Game
21
8
Fumbles / Game
1
26
Turnover EPA / Game
26
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
11
4th Down Efficiency
13
19
RZ Efficiency
2
18
Cardinals Offense vs Colts Defense


Total
Points / Game
9
7
Yards / Game
12
18
Passing Yards / Game
8
17
Rushing Yards / Game
27
20
EPA
EPA / Play
17
17
EPA / Pass
13
16
EPA / Rush
19
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
31
Interceptions / Game
17
15
Fumbles / Game
31
22
Turnover EPA / Game
5
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
30
4th Down Efficiency
13
2
RZ Efficiency
1
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

Colts
9-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
1-1-8
O/U

Cardinals
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
1-1-8
O/U