INDColts
4-1
9
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
69°F
13 mph
19
LACChargers
2-3
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
69°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
3
0
3
9
Chargers
0
10
3
6
19
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
267
374
Total Plays
48
72
Yards / Play
5.6
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.16
Passing Yards
193
227
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
22/33(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.12
+0.21
Rushing Yards
74
147
Rush Attempts
17
37
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
24
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
20%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.20
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-9
-10
Sack EPA
-1.98
-2.68
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
28
25
Penalty EPA
-5.76
-2.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.5
Model
+2.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model43.9%
Spread Pick
Chargers+1.5
Expected Value
+7.5%
Cover Probability
56.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+97
Home nfelo
1,470
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+117.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+14.6
Home QB Adjustment
+27.5
Away QB Adjustment
+12.9
Market Regression
-8.7
Final Difference
42.5
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+12.9
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+27.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
9
Yards / Game
11
23
Passing Yards / Game
11
20
Rushing Yards / Game
21
14
EPA
EPA / Play
10
30
EPA / Pass
16
22
EPA / Rush
6
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
28
Interceptions / Game
17
24
Fumbles / Game
2
19
Turnover EPA / Game
22
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
21
4th Down Efficiency
22
15
RZ Efficiency
10
24
Chargers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
14
Yards / Game
8
22
Passing Yards / Game
2
21
Rushing Yards / Game
13
30
EPA
EPA / Play
2
20
EPA / Pass
2
21
EPA / Rush
10
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
27
Interceptions / Game
5
21
Fumbles / Game
7
14
Turnover EPA / Game
27
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
23
4th Down Efficiency
1
18
RZ Efficiency
21
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Chargers
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U