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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ chiefs week 12, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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IND logo
INDColts
8-2
20
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
0
23
KCChiefs
5-5
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Colts
7
7
6
0
0
20
Chiefs
0
9
0
11
3
23

Spread

IND logo
+4.5

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
255
496
Total Plays
50
92
Yards / Play
5.1
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.02
Passing Yards
--
348
Comp/Att
19/31(61%)
29/47(62%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.18
Rushing Yards
74
148
Rush Attempts
19
41
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
10
33
Passing 1st downs
6
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
13
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
38%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
50%
17%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-10.05
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-6
Sack EPA
--
-2.93
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
83
57
Penalty EPA
-10.10
-4.39

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+85
Home nfelo
1,627
Away nfelo
1,551
Home Field
+16.8
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-33.4
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
-7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-7.9
Home QB Adjustment
+7.8
Away QB Adjustment
+15.7
Market Regression
+50.6
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
Value
Ptile
09/07
8.5
95
09/14
5.6
87
09/21
3.8
77
09/28
-2.0
37
10/05
2.8
71
10/12
3.4
75
10/19
4.7
82
10/26
3.2
74
11/02
-4.8
18
11/09
-2.8
31
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
Value
Ptile
09/05
5.7
88
09/14
2.5
68
09/21
-2.6
33
09/28
7.3
93
10/06
9.5
97
10/12
7.1
92
10/19
8.1
94
10/27
2.8
71
11/02
-6.9
8
11/16
0.4
54

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Colts logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
7
6
Yards / Game
11
10
Passing Yards / Game
15
12
Rushing Yards / Game
14
10

EPA

EPA / Play
7
21
EPA / Pass
12
17
EPA / Rush
2
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
13
Interceptions / Game
23
19
Fumbles / Game
6
29
Turnover EPA / Game
16
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
29
4th Down Efficiency
6
1
RZ Efficiency
3
12
Chiefs Offense vs Colts Defense
Chiefs logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
20
19
Yards / Game
17
24
Passing Yards / Game
9
32
Rushing Yards / Game
23
5

EPA

EPA / Play
9
17
EPA / Pass
11
19
EPA / Rush
5
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
25
Interceptions / Game
21
8
Fumbles / Game
1
12
Turnover EPA / Game
29
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
27
4th Down Efficiency
2
14
RZ Efficiency
12
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
25
W
W
U
09/14
1
W
W
O
09/21
21
W
W
O
09/28
-7
L
L
U
10/05
34
W
W
U
10/12
4
W
L
O
10/19
14
W
W
O
10/26
24
W
W
O
11/02
-7
L
L
U
11/09
6
W
L
O
KC logo

Chiefs

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/05
-6
L
L
O
09/14
-3
L
L
U
09/21
13
W
W
U
09/28
17
W
W
O
10/06
-3
L
L
O
10/12
13
W
W
U
10/19
31
W
W
U
10/27
21
W
W
U
11/02
-7
L
L
U
11/16
-3
L
L
U