INDColts
9-5
20
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
25°F
6 mph
13
KCChiefs
2-12
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
25°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
1
6
0
7
14
Chiefs
3
0
10
0
13
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
288
507
Total Plays
65
67
Yards / Play
4.4
7.6
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.07
Passing Yards
198
155
Comp/Att
17/36(47%)
10/22(45%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.40
Rushing Yards
90
352
Rush Attempts
26
44
Yards / Rush
3.5
8.0
EPA / Rush
-0.15
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
12
6
Rushing 1st downs
3
13
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
38%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-16.88
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-7
-7
Sack EPA
-3.82
-2.53
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
--
75
Penalty EPA
--
-7.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market67.5%
Model60.2%
Spread Pick
Chiefs+5.0
Expected Value
+15.2%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-22
Home nfelo
1,339
Away nfelo
1,422
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-12.7
Home QB Adjustment
-18.8
Away QB Adjustment
-6.1
Market Regression
+1.2
Final Difference
-71.8
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
-6.1
B. Quinn
Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
-18.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
25
Yards / Game
10
19
Passing Yards / Game
5
4
Rushing Yards / Game
18
27
EPA
EPA / Play
16
31
EPA / Pass
17
32
EPA / Rush
11
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
10
Interceptions / Game
26
31
Fumbles / Game
11
26
Turnover EPA / Game
7
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
17
4th Down Efficiency
2
30
RZ Efficiency
21
16
Chiefs Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
21
Yards / Game
24
27
Passing Yards / Game
31
10
Rushing Yards / Game
5
29
EPA
EPA / Play
31
26
EPA / Pass
31
27
EPA / Rush
16
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
9
Interceptions / Game
31
22
Fumbles / Game
28
30
Turnover EPA / Game
4
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
15
4th Down Efficiency
19
9
RZ Efficiency
32
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chiefs
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U