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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ chiefs week 16, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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IND logo
INDColts
9-5
20
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
25°F
6 mph
13
KCChiefs
2-12
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
25°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
1
6
0
7
14
Chiefs
3
0
10
0
13

Spread

IND logo
-5

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
288
507
Total Plays
65
67
Yards / Play
4.4
7.6
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.07
Passing Yards
198
155
Comp/Att
17/36(47%)
10/22(45%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.40
Rushing Yards
90
352
Rush Attempts
26
44
Yards / Rush
3.5
8.0
EPA / Rush
-0.15
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
12
6
Rushing 1st downs
3
13
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
38%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-16.88
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-7
-7
Sack EPA
-3.82
-2.53
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
--
75
Penalty EPA
--
-7.84

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market67.5%
Model60.2%
Spread Pick
KC logo
Chiefs+5.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+15.2%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-22
Home nfelo
1,338
Away nfelo
1,420
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-12.7
Home QB Adjustment
-18.8
Away QB Adjustment
-6.1
Market Regression
+1.2
Final Difference
-72.0
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
-6.1
Value
Ptile
10/14
-7.6
8
10/21
-0.0
50
10/28
1.5
60
11/04
9.2
95
11/08
1.1
57
11/18
-2.4
33
11/25
-4.5
22
12/02
0.6
54
12/09
-9.8
2
12/16
-2.9
31
B. Quinn headshot

B. Quinn

Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
-18.8
Value
Ptile
11/29
-2.9
31
12/06
4.4
79
12/10
-5.5
17
12/20
-5.3
18
10/14
-5.1
17
10/28
-8.6
5
11/25
-6.7
10
12/02
4.4
78
12/09
-9.5
3
12/16
-9.8
2

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Colts logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
20
25
Yards / Game
10
19
Passing Yards / Game
5
4
Rushing Yards / Game
18
27

EPA

EPA / Play
16
31
EPA / Pass
17
32
EPA / Rush
11
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
10
Interceptions / Game
26
31
Fumbles / Game
11
26
Turnover EPA / Game
7
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
17
4th Down Efficiency
2
30
RZ Efficiency
21
16
Chiefs Offense vs Colts Defense
Chiefs logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
32
21
Yards / Game
24
27
Passing Yards / Game
31
10
Rushing Yards / Game
5
29

EPA

EPA / Play
31
26
EPA / Pass
31
27
EPA / Rush
16
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
9
Interceptions / Game
31
22
Fumbles / Game
28
30
Turnover EPA / Game
4
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
15
4th Down Efficiency
19
9
RZ Efficiency
32
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
-26
L
L
O
10/21
4
W
W
U
10/28
6
W
W
U
11/04
3
W
W
U
11/08
17
W
W
U
11/18
-35
L
L
O
11/25
7
W
W
U
12/02
2
W
W
O
12/09
4
W
W
O
12/16
-12
L
L
U
KC logo

Chiefs

1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/07
-3
L
W
U
10/14
-28
L
L
O
10/28
-10
L
L
O
11/01
-18
L
L
O
11/12
-3
L
W
U
11/18
-22
L
L
U
11/25
-8
L
W
U
12/02
6
W
W
O
12/09
-23
L
L
U
12/16
-15
L
L
U