INDColts
0-1
21
TBD
FedExField
71°F
5 mph
9
WASCommanders
1-0
TBD
FedExField
71°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
7
0
7
21
Commanders
0
3
3
3
9
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
281
334
Total Plays
60
71
Yards / Play
4.7
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.16
Passing Yards
177
269
Comp/Att
21/31(68%)
33/46(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.12
Rushing Yards
104
65
Rush Attempts
28
22
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
20
Passing 1st downs
10
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
56%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
60%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.97
-4.37
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-2
-23
Sack EPA
-0.47
-4.04
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
26
90
Penalty EPA
-2.70
-7.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+177
Home nfelo
1,503
Away nfelo
1,379
Home Field
+76.4
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.4
Home QB Adjustment
+13.1
Away QB Adjustment
+36.5
Market Regression
+6.7
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+36.5
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
15
Yards / Game
7
17
Passing Yards / Game
24
19
Rushing Yards / Game
16
16
EPA
EPA / Play
10
21
EPA / Pass
10
15
EPA / Rush
18
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
12
Interceptions / Game
22
11
Fumbles / Game
21
10
Turnover EPA / Game
9
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
29
4th Down Efficiency
19
2
RZ Efficiency
7
4
Commanders Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
8
Yards / Game
28
11
Passing Yards / Game
26
4
Rushing Yards / Game
17
9
EPA
EPA / Play
25
8
EPA / Pass
28
6
EPA / Rush
12
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
31
Interceptions / Game
23
13
Fumbles / Game
3
12
Turnover EPA / Game
16
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
18
4th Down Efficiency
17
7
RZ Efficiency
24
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Commanders
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U