INDColts
3-2
27
TBD
FedExField
70°F
7 mph
24
WASCommanders
3-2
TBD
FedExField
70°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
10
7
3
27
Commanders
7
0
10
7
24
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
469
335
Total Plays
68
72
Yards / Play
6.9
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.00
Passing Yards
299
222
Comp/Att
25/38(66%)
29/45(64%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.31
-0.04
Rushing Yards
170
113
Rush Attempts
29
24
Yards / Rush
5.9
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.00
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
23
Passing 1st downs
17
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
30%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-9.60
-1.04
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-24
Sack EPA
-4.92
-4.46
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
--
53
Penalty EPA
--
-5.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-41
Home nfelo
1,485
Away nfelo
1,599
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.1
Home QB Adjustment
+4.0
Away QB Adjustment
+15.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+15.0
D. McNabb
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
22
Yards / Game
6
31
Passing Yards / Game
8
31
Rushing Yards / Game
29
25
EPA
EPA / Play
3
12
EPA / Pass
4
26
EPA / Rush
13
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
5
Interceptions / Game
16
19
Fumbles / Game
7
10
Turnover EPA / Game
21
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
8
4th Down Efficiency
7
29
RZ Efficiency
1
13
Commanders Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
23
Yards / Game
17
20
Passing Yards / Game
4
15
Rushing Yards / Game
30
27
EPA
EPA / Play
28
29
EPA / Pass
25
21
EPA / Rush
19
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
31
Interceptions / Game
21
30
Fumbles / Game
22
21
Turnover EPA / Game
9
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
23
4th Down Efficiency
12
12
RZ Efficiency
20
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Commanders
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U