INDColts
4-7
19
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
054
DALCowboys
8-3
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
10
3
6
0
19
Cowboys
7
14
0
27
48
Spread
-11
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
309
385
Total Plays
71
66
Yards / Play
4.4
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.33
+0.21
Passing Yards
203
165
Comp/Att
21/38(55%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.46
+0.08
Rushing Yards
106
220
Rush Attempts
30
34
Yards / Rush
3.5
6.5
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
31%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-27.48
-5.02
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-30
-5
Sack EPA
-10.32
-1.21
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
88
43
Penalty EPA
-7.77
-2.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+217
Home nfelo
1,601
Away nfelo
1,437
Home Field
+47.3
Base HFA
+40.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.2
Net QB Adjustment
+5.8
Home QB Adjustment
+20.1
Away QB Adjustment
+14.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.3
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+20.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
6
Yards / Game
27
13
Passing Yards / Game
18
15
Rushing Yards / Game
23
22
EPA
EPA / Play
32
3
EPA / Pass
30
4
EPA / Rush
30
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
29
Interceptions / Game
32
10
Fumbles / Game
32
1
Turnover EPA / Game
1
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
18
4th Down Efficiency
23
17
RZ Efficiency
29
5
Cowboys Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
28
Yards / Game
10
15
Passing Yards / Game
23
18
Rushing Yards / Game
9
20
EPA
EPA / Play
9
10
EPA / Pass
9
16
EPA / Rush
12
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
2
Interceptions / Game
30
24
Fumbles / Game
3
10
Turnover EPA / Game
20
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
9
4th Down Efficiency
5
17
RZ Efficiency
1
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Cowboys
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U