INDColts
8-6
10
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
029
ATLFalcons
6-8
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
0
3
0
10
Falcons
7
6
7
9
29
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
262
406
Total Plays
68
64
Yards / Play
3.9
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.15
Passing Yards
170
229
Comp/Att
20/37(54%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.23
Rushing Yards
92
177
Rush Attempts
25
30
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.9
EPA / Rush
-0.32
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
36%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.18
--
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-31
--
Sack EPA
-8.52
-0.54
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
29
35
Penalty EPA
-5.19
-5.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+24
Home nfelo
1,440
Away nfelo
1,457
Home Field
+45.4
Base HFA
+45.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.0
Home QB Adjustment
+5.9
Away QB Adjustment
+10.9
Market Regression
+43.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
+10.9
T. Heinicke
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+5.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
17
Yards / Game
14
10
Passing Yards / Game
14
10
Rushing Yards / Game
10
19
EPA
EPA / Play
17
12
EPA / Pass
16
14
EPA / Rush
21
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
20
Interceptions / Game
6
29
Fumbles / Game
16
21
Turnover EPA / Game
19
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
3
4th Down Efficiency
16
12
RZ Efficiency
23
4
Falcons Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
28
Yards / Game
17
24
Passing Yards / Game
27
25
Rushing Yards / Game
8
24
EPA
EPA / Play
27
19
EPA / Pass
23
15
EPA / Rush
25
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
18
Interceptions / Game
27
14
Fumbles / Game
22
8
Turnover EPA / Game
6
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
11
4th Down Efficiency
29
30
RZ Efficiency
30
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U