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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ falcons week 16, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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IND logo
INDColts
8-6
10
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0
29
ATLFalcons
6-8
ATL logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
0
3
0
10
Falcons
7
6
7
9
29

Spread

ATL logo
-3

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
262
406
Total Plays
68
64
Yards / Play
3.9
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.15
Passing Yards
170
229
Comp/Att
20/37(54%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.23
Rushing Yards
92
177
Rush Attempts
25
30
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.9
EPA / Rush
-0.32
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
36%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.18
--
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-31
--
Sack EPA
-8.52
-0.54
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
29
35
Penalty EPA
-5.19
-5.50

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+21
Home nfelo
1,437
Away nfelo
1,456
Home Field
+45.3
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.5
Home QB Adjustment
+5.9
Away QB Adjustment
+11.4
Market Regression
+43.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

G. Minshew headshot

G. Minshew

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.4
Value
Ptile
09/24
-3.5
26
10/15
-5.5
16
10/22
6.9
90
10/29
-1.4
40
11/05
-2.2
34
11/12
-2.3
33
11/26
-2.8
31
12/03
2.1
64
12/10
-1.9
36
12/16
1.8
61
T. Heinicke headshot

T. Heinicke

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+5.9
Value
Ptile
10/30
4.3
82
11/06
-4.8
18
11/14
-4.7
20
11/20
-1.9
38
11/27
-3.6
24
12/04
0.2
54
12/18
0.4
55
12/24
-1.7
40
11/05
-0.9
44
11/12
-5.8
15

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Falcons Defense
Colts logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
11
17
Yards / Game
14
10
Passing Yards / Game
14
10
Rushing Yards / Game
10
19

EPA

EPA / Play
17
12
EPA / Pass
16
14
EPA / Rush
21
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
20
Interceptions / Game
6
29
Fumbles / Game
16
21
Turnover EPA / Game
19
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
3
4th Down Efficiency
16
12
RZ Efficiency
23
4
Falcons Offense vs Colts Defense
Falcons logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
26
28
Yards / Game
17
24
Passing Yards / Game
27
25
Rushing Yards / Game
8
24

EPA

EPA / Play
27
19
EPA / Pass
23
15
EPA / Rush
25
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
18
Interceptions / Game
27
14
Fumbles / Game
22
8
Turnover EPA / Game
6
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
11
4th Down Efficiency
29
30
RZ Efficiency
30
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/08
7
W
W
U
10/15
-17
L
L
O
10/22
-1
L
W
O
10/29
-11
L
L
O
11/05
14
W
W
U
11/12
4
W
W
U
11/26
7
W
W
O
12/03
3
W
W
O
12/10
-20
L
L
O
12/16
17
W
W
O
ATL logo

Falcons

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/08
2
W
L
U
10/15
-8
L
L
U
10/22
3
W
W
U
10/29
-5
L
L
O
11/05
-3
L
L
O
11/12
-2
L
L
O
11/26
9
W
W
U
12/03
5
W
W
U
12/10
-4
L
L
O
12/17
-2
L
L
U