nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ giants week 9, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

IND logo
INDColts
5-3
40
TBD
MetLife Stadium
55°F
6 mph
24
NYGGiants
3-4
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
55°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
13
21
3
40
Giants
0
3
7
14
24

Spread

IND logo
-3

Total

OVER
51

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
443
438
Total Plays
71
75
Yards / Play
6.2
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.05
Passing Yards
345
349
Comp/Att
25/46(54%)
27/52(52%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.28
-0.02
Rushing Yards
98
89
Rush Attempts
24
20
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
15
17
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
33%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-6.37
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-9
-10
Sack EPA
-0.91
-8.05
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
--
30
Penalty EPA
--
-2.93

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-36
Home nfelo
1,458
Away nfelo
1,558
Home Field
+80.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.4
Home QB Adjustment
+14.9
Away QB Adjustment
+31.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+31.3
Value
Ptile
01/04
8.8
93
01/11
-6.5
13
09/07
4.3
79
09/15
2.0
65
09/21
12.3
99
09/28
11.2
98
10/05
3.5
74
10/09
2.7
69
10/19
4.9
81
10/26
4.6
81
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.9
Value
Ptile
12/15
-12.8
1
12/22
-3.0
32
12/29
-5.7
16
09/08
-6.5
13
09/14
0.6
53
09/21
3.7
75
09/25
9.4
95
10/05
0.5
52
10/12
-9.5
4
10/19
5.9
86

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Giants Defense
Colts logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
6
22
Yards / Game
3
29
Passing Yards / Game
1
31
Rushing Yards / Game
22
30

EPA

EPA / Play
10
20
EPA / Pass
9
16
EPA / Rush
30
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
23
Interceptions / Game
24
11
Fumbles / Game
30
10
Turnover EPA / Game
5
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
4
4th Down Efficiency
22
9
RZ Efficiency
12
8
Giants Offense vs Colts Defense
Giants logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
13
18
Yards / Game
11
9
Passing Yards / Game
12
3
Rushing Yards / Game
23
19

EPA

EPA / Play
16
11
EPA / Pass
13
5
EPA / Rush
26
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
28
Interceptions / Game
15
25
Fumbles / Game
22
3
Turnover EPA / Game
9
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
3
4th Down Efficiency
31
5
RZ Efficiency
8
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/04
1
W
W
O
01/11
-21
L
L
O
09/07
-7
L
W
O
09/15
-3
L
L
O
09/21
27
W
W
O
09/28
24
W
W
O
10/05
7
W
W
U
10/09
5
W
W
O
10/19
27
W
W
U
10/26
-17
L
L
O
NYG logo

Giants

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
-23
L
L
U
12/22
3
W
W
U
12/29
14
W
W
U
09/08
-21
L
L
O
09/14
-11
L
L
U
09/21
13
W
W
O
09/25
31
W
W
O
10/05
10
W
W
U
10/12
-27
L
L
U
10/19
-10
L
L
O