INDColts
5-3
40
TBD
MetLife Stadium
55°F
6 mph
24
NYGGiants
3-4
TBD
MetLife Stadium
55°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
13
21
3
40
Giants
0
3
7
14
24
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
443
438
Total Plays
71
75
Yards / Play
6.2
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.05
Passing Yards
345
349
Comp/Att
25/46(54%)
27/52(52%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.28
-0.02
Rushing Yards
98
89
Rush Attempts
24
20
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
15
17
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
33%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-6.37
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-9
-10
Sack EPA
-0.91
-8.05
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
--
30
Penalty EPA
--
-2.93
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-42
Home nfelo
1,455
Away nfelo
1,561
Home Field
+80.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.4
Home QB Adjustment
+14.9
Away QB Adjustment
+31.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+31.3
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
22
Yards / Game
3
29
Passing Yards / Game
1
31
Rushing Yards / Game
22
30
EPA
EPA / Play
10
20
EPA / Pass
9
16
EPA / Rush
30
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
23
Interceptions / Game
24
11
Fumbles / Game
30
10
Turnover EPA / Game
5
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
4
4th Down Efficiency
22
9
RZ Efficiency
12
8
Giants Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
18
Yards / Game
11
9
Passing Yards / Game
12
3
Rushing Yards / Game
23
19
EPA
EPA / Play
16
11
EPA / Pass
13
5
EPA / Rush
26
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
28
Interceptions / Game
15
25
Fumbles / Game
22
3
Turnover EPA / Game
9
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
3
4th Down Efficiency
31
5
RZ Efficiency
8
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U
Giants
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U