INDColts
2-1
28
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
80°F
10 mph
31
JAXJaguars
1-2
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
80°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
7
0
14
28
Jaguars
7
7
7
10
31
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
406
337
Total Plays
66
57
Yards / Play
6.2
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.30
Passing Yards
348
--
Comp/Att
33/46(72%)
17/22(77%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.45
Rushing Yards
58
174
Rush Attempts
19
35
Yards / Rush
3.1
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.19
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
20
Passing 1st downs
23
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
70%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
7
9
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.44
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-4
--
Sack EPA
-0.91
--
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
35
45
Penalty EPA
-3.64
-4.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-212
Home nfelo
1,401
Away nfelo
1,623
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-46.3
Home QB Adjustment
-18.9
Away QB Adjustment
+27.4
Market Regression
+27.6
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+27.4
D. Garrard
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-18.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
26
Yards / Game
6
27
Passing Yards / Game
8
16
Rushing Yards / Game
29
22
EPA
EPA / Play
3
30
EPA / Pass
4
31
EPA / Rush
13
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
13
Interceptions / Game
16
23
Fumbles / Game
7
28
Turnover EPA / Game
21
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
27
4th Down Efficiency
7
12
RZ Efficiency
1
20
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
23
Yards / Game
13
20
Passing Yards / Game
19
15
Rushing Yards / Game
3
27
EPA
EPA / Play
9
29
EPA / Pass
21
21
EPA / Rush
3
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
31
Interceptions / Game
27
30
Fumbles / Game
9
21
Turnover EPA / Game
10
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
23
4th Down Efficiency
6
12
RZ Efficiency
2
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U