INDColts
2-1
37
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
80°F
12 mph
3
JAXJaguars
0-3
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
80°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
14
14
3
31
Jaguars
3
0
0
0
3
Spread
-9
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
437
205
Total Plays
70
54
Yards / Play
6.2
3.8
EPA / Play
+0.24
-0.43
Passing Yards
280
165
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
17/32(53%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.29
-0.72
Rushing Yards
157
40
Rush Attempts
30
18
Yards / Rush
5.2
2.2
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
14
Passing 1st downs
16
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
--
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
46%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
40%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.08
-15.09
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-14
-14
Sack EPA
-2.28
-4.23
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
58
65
Penalty EPA
-7.78
-6.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market78.3%
Model77.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-170
Home nfelo
1,267
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-27.7
Home QB Adjustment
-19.1
Away QB Adjustment
+8.6
Market Regression
-4.3
Final Difference
-212.0
Model Spread
+8.5
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+8.6
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-19.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
28
Yards / Game
11
26
Passing Yards / Game
11
19
Rushing Yards / Game
21
29
EPA
EPA / Play
10
27
EPA / Pass
16
31
EPA / Rush
6
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
2
Interceptions / Game
17
27
Fumbles / Game
2
16
Turnover EPA / Game
22
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
26
4th Down Efficiency
22
30
RZ Efficiency
10
23
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
14
Yards / Game
31
22
Passing Yards / Game
20
21
Rushing Yards / Game
31
30
EPA
EPA / Play
31
20
EPA / Pass
32
21
EPA / Rush
30
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
27
Interceptions / Game
27
21
Fumbles / Game
4
14
Turnover EPA / Game
10
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
23
4th Down Efficiency
20
18
RZ Efficiency
32
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jaguars
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U