INDColts
2-2
34
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
74°F
4 mph
37
JAXJaguars
0-4
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
74°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
3
0
24
34
Jaguars
0
13
7
17
37
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
447
497
Total Plays
69
57
Yards / Play
6.5
8.7
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.31
Passing Yards
348
--
Comp/Att
34/45(76%)
28/34(82%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
--
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.40
Rushing Yards
99
126
Rush Attempts
20
23
Yards / Rush
5.0
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.23
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
20
Passing 1st downs
17
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
60%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-3.47
-3.72
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-35
--
Sack EPA
-5.61
--
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
34
25
Penalty EPA
-2.07
-2.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+51
Home nfelo
1,497
Away nfelo
1,459
Home Field
+41.5
Base HFA
+46.2
Divisional Adj
-20.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-28.5
Home QB Adjustment
-14.9
Away QB Adjustment
+13.6
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.6
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
-14.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
27
Yards / Game
13
31
Passing Yards / Game
24
26
Rushing Yards / Game
8
24
EPA
EPA / Play
23
31
EPA / Pass
23
32
EPA / Rush
17
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
25
Interceptions / Game
29
30
Fumbles / Game
22
31
Turnover EPA / Game
4
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
26
4th Down Efficiency
11
17
RZ Efficiency
23
20
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
24
Yards / Game
25
29
Passing Yards / Game
26
12
Rushing Yards / Game
25
23
EPA
EPA / Play
18
15
EPA / Pass
20
27
EPA / Rush
16
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
25
Interceptions / Game
22
5
Fumbles / Game
17
11
Turnover EPA / Game
23
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
29
4th Down Efficiency
20
11
RZ Efficiency
13
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jaguars
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U