INDColts
6-6
16
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
79°F
5 mph
51
JAXJaguars
4-8
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
79°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
4
3
0
10
Jaguars
3
0
15
21
39
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
322
380
Total Plays
69
62
Yards / Play
4.7
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.50
+0.04
Passing Yards
227
226
Comp/Att
20/43(47%)
16/30(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.59
+0.05
Rushing Yards
95
154
Rush Attempts
23
29
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
24
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
25%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
9
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-17.84
-13.77
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-33
-24
Sack EPA
-12.47
-10.79
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
85
40
Penalty EPA
-9.96
-3.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+16
Home nfelo
1,380
Away nfelo
1,491
Home Field
+54.1
Base HFA
+60.3
Divisional Adj
-27.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+73.5
Home QB Adjustment
+27.6
Away QB Adjustment
-45.9
Market Regression
+24.6
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-45.9
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+27.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
31
Yards / Game
28
24
Passing Yards / Game
20
32
Rushing Yards / Game
29
15
EPA
EPA / Play
27
18
EPA / Pass
25
26
EPA / Rush
32
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
4
Interceptions / Game
28
26
Fumbles / Game
15
15
Turnover EPA / Game
3
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
31
4th Down Efficiency
11
17
RZ Efficiency
20
25
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
25
Yards / Game
17
27
Passing Yards / Game
6
23
Rushing Yards / Game
27
25
EPA
EPA / Play
24
14
EPA / Pass
19
18
EPA / Rush
30
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
15
Interceptions / Game
26
6
Fumbles / Game
15
15
Turnover EPA / Game
4
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
19
4th Down Efficiency
13
30
RZ Efficiency
18
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U