INDColts
13-0
35
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
56°F
10 mph
31
JAXJaguars
7-6
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
56°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
21
7
7
35
Jaguars
3
14
14
0
31
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
369
345
Total Plays
53
76
Yards / Play
7.0
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.45
+0.25
Passing Yards
--
206
Comp/Att
23/30(77%)
23/40(57%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.79
+0.23
Rushing Yards
61
139
Rush Attempts
23
34
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.19
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
25
Passing 1st downs
16
16
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
67%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
8
10
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.14
-2.40
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-17
Sack EPA
--
-4.06
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
40
22
Penalty EPA
-2.47
-1.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
Colts-3.5
Expected Value
+3.7%
Cover Probability
54.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-174
Home nfelo
1,443
Away nfelo
1,661
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-12.0
Home QB Adjustment
-7.9
Away QB Adjustment
+4.1
Market Regression
-8.7
Final Difference
-135.3
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.1
D. Garrard
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
24
Yards / Game
8
22
Passing Yards / Game
28
1
Rushing Yards / Game
32
18
EPA
EPA / Play
3
32
EPA / Pass
4
32
EPA / Rush
27
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
7
Interceptions / Game
21
16
Fumbles / Game
1
20
Turnover EPA / Game
26
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
31
4th Down Efficiency
13
31
RZ Efficiency
2
24
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
7
Yards / Game
18
18
Passing Yards / Game
13
17
Rushing Yards / Game
9
20
EPA
EPA / Play
16
17
EPA / Pass
20
16
EPA / Rush
1
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
31
Interceptions / Game
4
15
Fumbles / Game
22
22
Turnover EPA / Game
15
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
30
4th Down Efficiency
10
2
RZ Efficiency
18
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
10-0
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U