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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ jaguars week 16, 2008

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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IND logo
INDColts
10-4
31
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
66°F
4 mph
24
JAXJaguars
5-9
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
66°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
7
7
11
25
Jaguars
7
10
7
0
24

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
396
409
Total Plays
52
71
Yards / Play
7.6
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.39
+0.15
Passing Yards
--
304
Comp/Att
29/34(85%)
28/41(68%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.93
+0.12
Rushing Yards
32
105
Rush Attempts
18
27
Yards / Rush
1.8
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.49
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
20
28
Passing 1st downs
17
17
Rushing 1st downs
1
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
60%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-7.15
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-25
Sack EPA
--
-5.41
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
50
60
Penalty EPA
-4.46
-6.08

Preview data is limited for games before 2009

Model projections and totals are not available before 2009, meaning preview data is limited to spread and margin trends, and team stats.

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A

Win Probability

MarketN/A
ModelN/A
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
Home nfelo
Away nfelo
Home Field
Base HFA
Divisional Adj
Home Bye Adj
Away Bye Adj
Surface Adj
Time Adj
Net QB Adjustment
Home QB Adjustment
Away QB Adjustment
Market Regression
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

Quarterback Data Not Available
Quarterback Data Not Available

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Colts logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
12
21
Yards / Game
15
18
Passing Yards / Game
20
14
Rushing Yards / Game
31
14

EPA

EPA / Play
4
26
EPA / Pass
2
30
EPA / Rush
23
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
8
Interceptions / Game
6
18
Fumbles / Game
1
32
Turnover EPA / Game
31
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
21
4th Down Efficiency
4
10
RZ Efficiency
1
25
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Jaguars logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
24
7
Yards / Game
20
11
Passing Yards / Game
6
3
Rushing Yards / Game
18
25

EPA

EPA / Play
18
21
EPA / Pass
19
9
EPA / Rush
6
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
29
Interceptions / Game
11
13
Fumbles / Game
20
8
Turnover EPA / Game
16
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
31
4th Down Efficiency
8
16
RZ Efficiency
15
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

8-2
SU
4-5-1
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/12
28
W
W
P
10/19
-20
L
L
P
10/27
-10
L
L
P
11/02
3
W
L
P
11/09
4
W
W
P
11/16
6
W
L
P
11/23
3
W
W
P
11/30
4
W
P
P
12/07
32
W
W
P
12/14
10
W
L
P
JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
-5
L
L
P
10/12
7
W
W
P
10/26
-6
L
L
P
11/02
-2
L
L
P
11/09
24
W
W
P
11/16
-10
L
L
P
11/23
-18
L
L
P
12/01
-13
L
L
P
12/07
-13
L
L
P
12/14
4
W
W
P