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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ jaguars week 17, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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IND logo
INDColts
2-13
13
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
10 mph
19
JAXJaguars
4-11
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
3
3
7
13
Jaguars
7
3
6
3
19

Spread

JAX logo
-3

Total

UNDER
36.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
298
261
Total Plays
65
57
Yards / Play
4.6
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.01
Passing Yards
242
71
Comp/Att
27/40(68%)
11/19(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
3.7
EPA / Pass
+0.06
-0.40
Rushing Yards
56
190
Rush Attempts
22
35
Yards / Rush
2.5
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.36
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
19
15
Passing 1st downs
17
4
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
43%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.48
-5.40
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-22
-21
Sack EPA
-6.99
-5.86
Penalties
4
1
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+39
Home nfelo
1,368
Away nfelo
1,381
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.7
Home QB Adjustment
-10.0
Away QB Adjustment
-6.2
Market Regression
-26.2
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

D. Orlovsky headshot

D. Orlovsky

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-6.2
Value
Ptile
10/19
-0.6
48
10/26
3.1
72
11/02
0.4
54
12/14
4.6
82
12/21
-8.5
5
12/28
-1.8
38
12/04
6.4
87
12/11
-6.9
10
12/18
-2.9
32
12/22
0.2
54
B. Gabbert headshot

B. Gabbert

Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-10.0
Value
Ptile
10/16
-6.3
13
10/24
-8.0
6
10/30
-8.7
4
11/13
-6.0
15
11/20
-0.7
47
11/27
-10.5
1
12/05
-1.1
44
12/11
-3.2
30
12/15
-7.5
7
12/24
-5.6
16

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Colts logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
28
10
Yards / Game
30
5
Passing Yards / Game
27
9
Rushing Yards / Game
26
9

EPA

EPA / Play
31
6
EPA / Pass
28
13
EPA / Rush
30
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
9
Interceptions / Game
13
15
Fumbles / Game
31
12
Turnover EPA / Game
5
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
15
4th Down Efficiency
20
19
RZ Efficiency
27
24
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Jaguars logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
28
28
Yards / Game
32
24
Passing Yards / Game
31
20
Rushing Yards / Game
11
29

EPA

EPA / Play
30
25
EPA / Pass
32
29
EPA / Rush
25
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
18
Interceptions / Game
17
31
Fumbles / Game
17
18
Turnover EPA / Game
25
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
31
4th Down Efficiency
23
23
RZ Efficiency
20
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
-10
L
L
O
10/23
-55
L
L
O
10/30
-17
L
L
U
11/06
-24
L
L
U
11/13
-14
L
L
U
11/27
-8
L
L
U
12/04
-7
L
W
O
12/11
-14
L
W
U
12/18
14
W
W
U
12/22
3
W
W
U
JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
-4
L
W
U
10/24
5
W
W
U
10/30
-10
L
P
U
11/13
14
W
W
U
11/20
-4
L
L
U
11/27
-7
L
L
U
12/05
-24
L
L
O
12/11
27
W
W
O
12/15
-27
L
L
O
12/24
-6
L
W
O