INDColts
2-13
13
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
10 mph
19
JAXJaguars
4-11
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
3
3
7
13
Jaguars
7
3
6
3
19
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
298
261
Total Plays
65
57
Yards / Play
4.6
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.01
Passing Yards
242
71
Comp/Att
27/40(68%)
11/19(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
3.7
EPA / Pass
+0.06
-0.40
Rushing Yards
56
190
Rush Attempts
22
35
Yards / Rush
2.5
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.36
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
15
Passing 1st downs
17
4
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
43%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.48
-5.40
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-22
-21
Sack EPA
-6.99
-5.86
Penalties
4
1
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+40
Home nfelo
1,369
Away nfelo
1,381
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.7
Home QB Adjustment
-10.0
Away QB Adjustment
-6.2
Market Regression
-26.5
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Orlovsky
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-6.2
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-10.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
10
Yards / Game
30
5
Passing Yards / Game
27
9
Rushing Yards / Game
26
9
EPA
EPA / Play
31
6
EPA / Pass
28
13
EPA / Rush
30
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
9
Interceptions / Game
13
15
Fumbles / Game
31
12
Turnover EPA / Game
5
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
15
4th Down Efficiency
20
19
RZ Efficiency
27
24
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
28
Yards / Game
32
24
Passing Yards / Game
31
20
Rushing Yards / Game
11
29
EPA
EPA / Play
30
25
EPA / Pass
32
29
EPA / Rush
25
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
18
Interceptions / Game
17
31
Fumbles / Game
17
18
Turnover EPA / Game
25
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
31
4th Down Efficiency
23
23
RZ Efficiency
20
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U