INDColts
9-7
11
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
76°F
19 mph
26
JAXJaguars
2-14
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
76°F
19 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
3
0
8
11
Jaguars
7
6
10
3
26
Spread
+14
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
235
318
Total Plays
54
64
Yards / Play
4.4
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.26
+0.06
Passing Yards
141
217
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.36
+0.25
Rushing Yards
94
101
Rush Attempts
18
31
Yards / Rush
5.2
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
19
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
33%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.94
--
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-46
-6
Sack EPA
-13.29
-1.93
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
52
49
Penalty EPA
-4.66
-5.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-14.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.0%
Model87.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-319
Home nfelo
1,270
Away nfelo
1,595
Home Field
+19.9
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.0
Home QB Adjustment
-17.6
Away QB Adjustment
-3.6
Market Regression
+11.0
Final Difference
-330.2
Model Spread
+14.0
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.6
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
-17.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
28
Yards / Game
16
20
Passing Yards / Game
18
7
Rushing Yards / Game
2
22
EPA
EPA / Play
8
31
EPA / Pass
18
31
EPA / Rush
2
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
22
Interceptions / Game
4
30
Fumbles / Game
20
32
Turnover EPA / Game
28
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
25
4th Down Efficiency
6
30
RZ Efficiency
19
24
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
11
Yards / Game
27
17
Passing Yards / Game
16
21
Rushing Yards / Game
22
12
EPA
EPA / Play
29
12
EPA / Pass
27
21
EPA / Rush
21
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
22
Interceptions / Game
26
3
Fumbles / Game
28
1
Turnover EPA / Game
3
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
18
4th Down Efficiency
10
18
RZ Efficiency
28
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U