INDColts
4-6
28
TBD
MetLife Stadium
62°F
4 mph
27
NYJJets
3-7
TBD
MetLife Stadium
62°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
10
3
12
28
Jets
0
7
10
10
27
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
332
253
Total Plays
69
52
Yards / Play
4.8
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.01
Passing Yards
241
162
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
22/29(76%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.28
-0.02
Rushing Yards
91
91
Rush Attempts
36
20
Yards / Rush
2.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
10
Passing 1st downs
13
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
40%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.34
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-31
-22
Sack EPA
-8.52
-3.25
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
40
--
Penalty EPA
-3.26
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+121
Home nfelo
1,512
Away nfelo
1,451
Home Field
+41.5
Base HFA
+41.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+18.9
Home QB Adjustment
+0.1
Away QB Adjustment
-18.8
Market Regression
+16.5
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
A. Richardson
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-18.8
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+0.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
19
Yards / Game
13
5
Passing Yards / Game
24
4
Rushing Yards / Game
8
17
EPA
EPA / Play
23
24
EPA / Pass
23
19
EPA / Rush
17
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
17
Interceptions / Game
29
27
Fumbles / Game
22
7
Turnover EPA / Game
4
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
14
4th Down Efficiency
11
30
RZ Efficiency
23
19
Jets Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
24
Yards / Game
24
29
Passing Yards / Game
5
12
Rushing Yards / Game
31
23
EPA
EPA / Play
19
15
EPA / Pass
18
27
EPA / Rush
21
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
25
Interceptions / Game
11
5
Fumbles / Game
10
11
Turnover EPA / Game
17
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
29
4th Down Efficiency
28
11
RZ Efficiency
21
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jets
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U