nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ jets week 11, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

IND logo
INDColts
4-6
28
TBD
MetLife Stadium
62°F
4 mph
27
NYJJets
3-7
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
62°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
10
3
12
28
Jets
0
7
10
10
27

Spread

IND logo
+4

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
332
253
Total Plays
69
52
Yards / Play
4.8
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.01
Passing Yards
241
162
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
22/29(76%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.28
-0.02
Rushing Yards
91
91
Rush Attempts
36
20
Yards / Rush
2.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
18
10
Passing 1st downs
13
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
40%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.34
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-31
-22
Sack EPA
-8.52
-3.25
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
40
--
Penalty EPA
-3.26
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+121
Home nfelo
1,512
Away nfelo
1,451
Home Field
+41.5
Base HFA
+41.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+18.9
Home QB Adjustment
+0.1
Away QB Adjustment
-18.8
Market Regression
+16.5
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

A. Richardson headshot

A. Richardson

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-18.8
Value
Ptile
09/10
-0.8
45
09/17
2.1
64
10/01
3.8
75
10/08
-4.1
24
09/08
2.3
65
09/15
-5.5
14
09/22
-7.1
8
09/29
-2.3
32
10/20
-2.4
32
10/27
-9.1
3
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.1
Value
Ptile
09/09
-2.9
28
09/15
-0.6
44
09/19
6.4
86
09/29
-4.8
17
10/06
-7.3
7
10/14
1.6
60
10/20
-1.6
37
10/27
2.3
65
10/31
3.2
71
11/10
-5.9
12

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Jets Defense
Colts logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
16
19
Yards / Game
13
5
Passing Yards / Game
24
4
Rushing Yards / Game
8
17

EPA

EPA / Play
23
24
EPA / Pass
23
19
EPA / Rush
17
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
17
Interceptions / Game
29
27
Fumbles / Game
22
7
Turnover EPA / Game
4
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
14
4th Down Efficiency
11
30
RZ Efficiency
23
19
Jets Offense vs Colts Defense
Jets logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
24
24
Yards / Game
24
29
Passing Yards / Game
5
12
Rushing Yards / Game
31
23

EPA

EPA / Play
19
15
EPA / Pass
18
27
EPA / Rush
21
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
25
Interceptions / Game
11
5
Fumbles / Game
10
11
Turnover EPA / Game
17
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
29
4th Down Efficiency
28
11
RZ Efficiency
21
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
-2
L
W
O
09/15
-6
L
L
U
09/22
5
W
W
U
09/29
3
W
W
O
10/06
-3
L
W
O
10/13
3
W
W
U
10/20
6
W
W
U
10/27
-3
L
W
U
11/03
-8
L
L
U
11/10
-10
L
L
O
NYJ logo

Jets

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/09
-13
L
L
O
09/15
7
W
W
U
09/19
21
W
W
U
09/29
-1
L
L
U
10/06
-6
L
L
U
10/14
-3
L
L
O
10/20
-22
L
L
O
10/27
-3
L
L
O
10/31
8
W
W
U
11/10
-25
L
L
U