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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ packers week 12, 2000

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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IND logo
INDColts
7-3
24
TBD
Lambeau Field
27°F
8 mph
26
GBPackers
4-6
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
27°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
0
3
21
24
Packers
3
14
0
7
24

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
338
432
Total Plays
65
66
Yards / Play
5.2
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.28
+0.26
Passing Yards
267
282
Comp/Att
25/44(57%)
23/36(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.03
Rushing Yards
71
145
Rush Attempts
17
28
Yards / Rush
4.2
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
25
25
Passing 1st downs
18
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
42%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
67%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-1.85
+1.08
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-27
-14
Sack EPA
-4.84
-2.22
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
69
46
Penalty EPA
-3.92
-4.87

Preview data is limited for games before 2009

Model projections and totals are not available before 2009, meaning preview data is limited to spread and margin trends, and team stats.

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A

Win Probability

MarketN/A
ModelN/A
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
Home nfelo
Away nfelo
Home Field
Base HFA
Divisional Adj
Home Bye Adj
Away Bye Adj
Surface Adj
Time Adj
Net QB Adjustment
Home QB Adjustment
Away QB Adjustment
Market Regression
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

Quarterback Data Not Available
Quarterback Data Not Available

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Packers Defense
Colts logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
4
13
Yards / Game
3
15
Passing Yards / Game
18
17
Rushing Yards / Game
15
8

EPA

EPA / Play
2
20
EPA / Pass
2
21
EPA / Rush
7
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
21
Interceptions / Game
8
7
Fumbles / Game
16
30
Turnover EPA / Game
20
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
13
4th Down Efficiency
1
23
RZ Efficiency
4
21
Packers Offense vs Colts Defense
Packers logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
11
16
Yards / Game
14
22
Passing Yards / Game
3
8
Rushing Yards / Game
23
27

EPA

EPA / Play
7
21
EPA / Pass
14
14
EPA / Rush
8
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
31
Interceptions / Game
13
17
Fumbles / Game
26
28
Turnover EPA / Game
18
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
21
4th Down Efficiency
8
28
RZ Efficiency
13
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/03
13
W
W
P
09/10
-7
L
L
P
09/25
29
W
W
P
10/01
2
W
W
P
10/08
-8
L
L
P
10/15
13
W
W
P
10/22
7
W
L
P
10/29
12
W
W
P
11/05
-3
L
L
P
11/12
8
W
W
P
GB logo

Packers

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/03
-4
L
L
P
09/10
-9
L
L
P
09/17
3
W
L
P
09/24
26
W
W
P
10/01
-3
L
L
P
10/08
-7
L
L
P
10/15
3
W
L
P
10/29
-8
L
L
P
11/06
6
W
W
P
11/12
-5
L
W
P