INDColts
3-4
26
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
60°F
7 mph
29
CARPanthers
6-0
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
60°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Colts
0
6
0
17
3
26
Panthers
10
0
7
6
6
29
Spread
+5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
359
379
Total Plays
84
73
Yards / Play
4.3
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.15
Passing Yards
223
239
Comp/Att
23/47(49%)
16/35(46%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.02
Rushing Yards
136
140
Rush Attempts
35
36
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
33%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
18
16
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
3
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-17.05
-14.18
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-8
-9
Sack EPA
-2.49
-2.64
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
15
55
Penalty EPA
-1.52
-11.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+130
Home nfelo
1,524
Away nfelo
1,488
Home Field
+83.8
Base HFA
+62.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.3
Home QB Adjustment
+7.2
Away QB Adjustment
-4.1
Market Regression
-31.7
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
-4.1
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
6
Yards / Game
28
5
Passing Yards / Game
20
20
Rushing Yards / Game
29
4
EPA
EPA / Play
27
2
EPA / Pass
25
2
EPA / Rush
32
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
19
Interceptions / Game
28
1
Fumbles / Game
15
3
Turnover EPA / Game
3
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
9
4th Down Efficiency
11
25
RZ Efficiency
20
8
Panthers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
25
Yards / Game
11
27
Passing Yards / Game
17
23
Rushing Yards / Game
2
25
EPA
EPA / Play
4
14
EPA / Pass
7
18
EPA / Rush
3
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
15
Interceptions / Game
8
6
Fumbles / Game
26
15
Turnover EPA / Game
22
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
19
4th Down Efficiency
9
30
RZ Efficiency
1
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Panthers
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
5-4-1
O/U