INDColts
3-5
27
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
75°F
2 mph
13
CARPanthers
1-6
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
75°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
14
0
1
15
Panthers
0
3
7
3
13
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
198
275
Total Plays
57
71
Yards / Play
3.5
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.22
Passing Yards
120
137
Comp/Att
17/26(65%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
3.5
EPA / Pass
-0.04
-0.63
Rushing Yards
78
138
Rush Attempts
30
28
Yards / Rush
2.6
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.21
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
17
Passing 1st downs
7
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
5
--
3rd Down %
31%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-16.52
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-7
-36
Sack EPA
-2.08
-5.20
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
25
81
Penalty EPA
-3.98
-13.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model52.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+6
Home nfelo
1,369
Away nfelo
1,396
Home Field
+58.6
Base HFA
+43.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-25.1
Home QB Adjustment
-9.9
Away QB Adjustment
+15.1
Market Regression
+2.5
Final Difference
-18.6
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
+15.1
B. Young
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-9.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
29
Yards / Game
14
3
Passing Yards / Game
14
1
Rushing Yards / Game
10
23
EPA
EPA / Play
17
27
EPA / Pass
16
17
EPA / Rush
21
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
2
Interceptions / Game
6
29
Fumbles / Game
16
32
Turnover EPA / Game
19
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
14
4th Down Efficiency
16
31
RZ Efficiency
23
28
Panthers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
28
Yards / Game
32
24
Passing Yards / Game
28
25
Rushing Yards / Game
20
24
EPA
EPA / Play
29
19
EPA / Pass
30
15
EPA / Rush
18
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
18
Interceptions / Game
6
14
Fumbles / Game
22
8
Turnover EPA / Game
11
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
11
4th Down Efficiency
21
30
RZ Efficiency
21
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U
Panthers
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U