INDColts
4-5
10
TBD
Deutsche Bank Park
70°F
06
NEPatriots
2-7
TBD
Deutsche Bank Park
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
0
0
3
10
Patriots
3
0
0
3
6
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
264
340
Total Plays
54
68
Yards / Play
4.9
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.06
Passing Yards
--
173
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
18/27(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.16
Rushing Yards
70
167
Rush Attempts
26
36
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
21
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
38%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.82
-4.51
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-22
Sack EPA
--
-7.43
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
34
34
Penalty EPA
-3.89
-4.13
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
+3.5
Current
-1.0
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model49.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+33
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,420
Home Field
--
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-20.1
Home QB Adjustment
-7.9
Away QB Adjustment
+12.2
Market Regression
-81.5
Final Difference
7.2
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-7.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
14
Yards / Game
14
6
Passing Yards / Game
14
8
Rushing Yards / Game
10
3
EPA
EPA / Play
17
6
EPA / Pass
16
20
EPA / Rush
21
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
9
Interceptions / Game
6
23
Fumbles / Game
16
26
Turnover EPA / Game
19
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
7
4th Down Efficiency
16
20
RZ Efficiency
23
5
Patriots Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
28
Yards / Game
30
24
Passing Yards / Game
31
25
Rushing Yards / Game
25
24
EPA
EPA / Play
32
19
EPA / Pass
31
15
EPA / Rush
22
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
18
Interceptions / Game
30
14
Fumbles / Game
16
8
Turnover EPA / Game
4
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
11
4th Down Efficiency
32
30
RZ Efficiency
11
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Patriots
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U