INDColts
13-5
7
TBD
Gillette Stadium
51°F
15 mph
45
NEPatriots
13-4
TBD
Gillette Stadium
51°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
7
0
0
7
Patriots
14
3
21
7
45
Spread
-7
Total
PUSH
52
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
209
397
Total Plays
52
76
Yards / Play
4.0
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.35
+0.27
Passing Yards
--
220
Comp/Att
12/33(36%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.49
+0.27
Rushing Yards
83
177
Rush Attempts
19
40
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
28
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
14
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
27%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
3
12
3rd Down Attempts
11
18
Red Zone %
100%
86%
Red Zone Conversions
1
6
Red Zone Attempts
1
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-11.45
+0.06
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-6
Sack EPA
--
-1.16
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
23
45
Penalty EPA
-3.16
-5.19
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
Colts+7.0
Expected Value
+6.1%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+109
Home nfelo
1,639
Away nfelo
1,606
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.4
Home QB Adjustment
+11.4
Away QB Adjustment
+8.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.3
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+11.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
8
Yards / Game
3
12
Passing Yards / Game
1
21
Rushing Yards / Game
22
13
EPA
EPA / Play
10
9
EPA / Pass
9
11
EPA / Rush
30
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
28
Interceptions / Game
24
10
Fumbles / Game
30
23
Turnover EPA / Game
5
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
13
4th Down Efficiency
22
12
RZ Efficiency
12
16
Patriots Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
18
Yards / Game
10
9
Passing Yards / Game
10
3
Rushing Yards / Game
19
19
EPA
EPA / Play
1
11
EPA / Pass
4
5
EPA / Rush
5
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
28
Interceptions / Game
6
25
Fumbles / Game
3
3
Turnover EPA / Game
30
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
3
4th Down Efficiency
3
5
RZ Efficiency
5
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Patriots
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U