INDColts
8-6
31
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
58°F
5 mph
26
OAKRaiders
7-7
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
58°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
10
7
7
31
Raiders
7
6
3
10
26
Spread
-2
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
370
290
Total Plays
69
65
Yards / Play
5.4
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.02
Passing Yards
--
210
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
29/42(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.06
-0.19
Rushing Yards
191
80
Rush Attempts
39
20
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
16
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
6
--
3rd Down %
36%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.15
--
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-21
Sack EPA
--
-4.37
Penalties
4
10
Penalty Yards
--
116
Penalty EPA
--
-11.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-23
Home nfelo
1,447
Away nfelo
1,577
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+10.5
Home QB Adjustment
+11.4
Away QB Adjustment
+0.9
Market Regression
+35.5
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
20
Yards / Game
6
11
Passing Yards / Game
8
9
Rushing Yards / Game
29
29
EPA
EPA / Play
3
19
EPA / Pass
4
11
EPA / Rush
13
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
6
Interceptions / Game
16
26
Fumbles / Game
7
22
Turnover EPA / Game
21
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
6
4th Down Efficiency
7
2
RZ Efficiency
1
17
Raiders Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
23
Yards / Game
10
20
Passing Yards / Game
18
15
Rushing Yards / Game
2
27
EPA
EPA / Play
11
29
EPA / Pass
22
21
EPA / Rush
5
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
31
Interceptions / Game
16
30
Fumbles / Game
22
21
Turnover EPA / Game
26
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
23
4th Down Efficiency
22
12
RZ Efficiency
18
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Raiders
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U