INDColts
-
9
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
90°F
2 mph
46
LARRams
-
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
90°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
0
0
6
9
Rams
4
17
4
7
32
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
225
373
Total Plays
49
64
Yards / Play
4.6
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.57
+0.17
Passing Yards
150
310
Comp/Att
11/21(52%)
22/30(73%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
10.3
EPA / Pass
-1.22
+0.35
Rushing Yards
75
63
Rush Attempts
24
33
Yards / Rush
3.1
1.9
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
19
Passing 1st downs
6
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
0%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
--
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-13.06
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-29
-8
Sack EPA
-5.96
-2.21
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
20
50
Penalty EPA
-2.79
-4.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+70
Home nfelo
1,415
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+87.7
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+34.1
Home QB Adjustment
-18.7
Away QB Adjustment
-52.8
Market Regression
+84.2
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
S. Tolzien
Proj. Value
-6.4
Team Elo Adj
-52.8
Value
Ptile
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
-18.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
12
Yards / Game
31
17
Passing Yards / Game
20
11
Rushing Yards / Game
21
27
EPA
EPA / Play
24
7
EPA / Pass
30
5
EPA / Rush
18
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
24
Interceptions / Game
5
7
Fumbles / Game
13
3
Turnover EPA / Game
22
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
14
4th Down Efficiency
16
27
RZ Efficiency
31
24
Rams Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
30
Yards / Game
8
28
Passing Yards / Game
13
30
Rushing Yards / Game
7
25
EPA
EPA / Play
6
32
EPA / Pass
8
32
EPA / Rush
7
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
1
Interceptions / Game
1
15
Fumbles / Game
30
28
Turnover EPA / Game
21
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
31
4th Down Efficiency
22
18
RZ Efficiency
15
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Rams
1-9
SU
1-8-1
ATS
4-6
O/U