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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ rams week 1, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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IND logo
INDColts
-
9
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
90°F
2 mph
46
LARRams
-
LAR logo
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
90°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
0
0
6
9
Rams
4
17
4
7
32

Spread

LAR logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
225
373
Total Plays
49
64
Yards / Play
4.6
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.57
+0.17
Passing Yards
150
310
Comp/Att
11/21(52%)
22/30(73%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
10.3
EPA / Pass
-1.22
+0.35
Rushing Yards
75
63
Rush Attempts
24
33
Yards / Rush
3.1
1.9
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
10
19
Passing 1st downs
6
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
0%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
--
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-13.06
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-29
-8
Sack EPA
-5.96
-2.21
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
20
50
Penalty EPA
-2.79
-4.46

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+73
Home nfelo
1,417
Away nfelo
1,467
Home Field
+88.8
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+34.1
Home QB Adjustment
-18.7
Away QB Adjustment
-52.8
Market Regression
+82.5
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

S. Tolzien headshot

S. Tolzien

Proj. Value
-6.4
Team Elo Adj
-52.8
Value
Ptile
11/17
0.2
51
11/24
-4.5
21
11/24
-5.9
12
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-18.7
Value
Ptile
11/20
-3.9
20
11/27
-1.3
38
12/04
-11.7
1
12/11
-6.0
12
12/15
-7.3
7
12/24
-12.7
1
01/01
-10.6
2

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Rams Defense
Colts logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
30
12
Yards / Game
31
17
Passing Yards / Game
20
11
Rushing Yards / Game
21
27

EPA

EPA / Play
24
7
EPA / Pass
30
5
EPA / Rush
18
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
24
Interceptions / Game
5
7
Fumbles / Game
13
3
Turnover EPA / Game
22
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
14
4th Down Efficiency
16
27
RZ Efficiency
31
24
Rams Offense vs Colts Defense
Rams logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
3
30
Yards / Game
8
28
Passing Yards / Game
13
30
Rushing Yards / Game
7
25

EPA

EPA / Play
6
32
EPA / Pass
8
32
EPA / Rush
7
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
1
Interceptions / Game
1
15
Fumbles / Game
30
28
Turnover EPA / Game
21
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
31
4th Down Efficiency
22
18
RZ Efficiency
15
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
8
W
W
O
10/30
-16
L
L
U
11/06
5
W
W
O
11/20
7
W
W
U
11/24
-21
L
L
U
12/05
31
W
W
O
12/11
-5
L
L
U
12/18
28
W
W
U
12/24
-8
L
L
O
01/01
4
W
L
U
LAR logo

Rams

1-9
SU
1-8-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
-7
L
L
U
11/06
-3
L
P
U
11/13
3
W
W
U
11/20
-4
L
L
U
11/27
-28
L
L
O
12/04
-16
L
L
U
12/11
-28
L
L
O
12/15
-21
L
L
U
12/24
-1
L
L
O
01/01
-38
L
L
O