INDColts
9-0
17
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
56°F
7 mph
15
BALRavens
5-4
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
56°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
7
0
3
17
Ravens
6
6
0
3
15
Spread
2
P
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
375
354
Total Plays
56
66
Yards / Play
6.7
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.02
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
22/31(71%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.21
Rushing Yards
76
98
Rush Attempts
25
31
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
20
Passing 1st downs
16
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
56%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-12.37
-4.09
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
40
20
Penalty EPA
-4.13
-1.19
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
+1.5
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model47.2%
Spread Pick
Ravens+2.0
Expected Value
+1.8%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+62
Home nfelo
1,644
Away nfelo
1,627
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-17.4
Home QB Adjustment
+4.3
Away QB Adjustment
+21.7
Market Regression
-10.0
Final Difference
19.8
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+21.7
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
2
Yards / Game
8
2
Passing Yards / Game
28
14
Rushing Yards / Game
32
3
EPA
EPA / Play
3
4
EPA / Pass
4
3
EPA / Rush
27
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
17
Interceptions / Game
21
5
Fumbles / Game
1
11
Turnover EPA / Game
26
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
8
4th Down Efficiency
13
10
RZ Efficiency
2
7
Ravens Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
7
Yards / Game
14
18
Passing Yards / Game
19
17
Rushing Yards / Game
4
20
EPA
EPA / Play
11
17
EPA / Pass
14
16
EPA / Rush
4
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
31
Interceptions / Game
13
15
Fumbles / Game
6
22
Turnover EPA / Game
27
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
30
4th Down Efficiency
24
2
RZ Efficiency
15
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
9-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Ravens
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U