INDColts
3-11
16
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
63°F
14 mph
23
BALRavens
8-6
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
63°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
7
6
3
16
Ravens
3
10
3
7
23
Spread
+13.5
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
296
323
Total Plays
59
71
Yards / Play
5.0
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.10
Passing Yards
203
220
Comp/Att
16/33(48%)
29/38(76%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.22
Rushing Yards
93
103
Rush Attempts
24
32
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
23
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
38%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-12
-17
Sack EPA
-2.69
-1.62
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
--
25
Penalty EPA
--
-2.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+298
Home nfelo
1,536
Away nfelo
1,297
Home Field
+75.3
Base HFA
+55.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.2
Home QB Adjustment
-0.9
Away QB Adjustment
+15.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
318.3
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
+15.4
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
5
Yards / Game
31
12
Passing Yards / Game
20
12
Rushing Yards / Game
21
16
EPA
EPA / Play
24
2
EPA / Pass
30
2
EPA / Rush
18
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
25
Interceptions / Game
5
1
Fumbles / Game
13
4
Turnover EPA / Game
22
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
8
4th Down Efficiency
16
11
RZ Efficiency
31
9
Ravens Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
30
Yards / Game
27
28
Passing Yards / Game
31
30
Rushing Yards / Game
10
25
EPA
EPA / Play
14
32
EPA / Pass
20
32
EPA / Rush
14
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
1
Interceptions / Game
17
15
Fumbles / Game
1
28
Turnover EPA / Game
17
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
31
4th Down Efficiency
4
18
RZ Efficiency
9
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Ravens
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
7-3
O/U