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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ ravens week 18, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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IND logo
INDColts
11-5
9
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
49°F
8 mph
24
BALRavens
10-6
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
49°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
6
3
0
9
Ravens
0
10
7
7
24

Spread

BAL logo
-7.5

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
419
439
Total Plays
87
56
Yards / Play
4.8
7.8
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.12
Passing Yards
267
269
Comp/Att
28/54(52%)
12/23(52%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
11.7
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.60
Rushing Yards
152
170
Rush Attempts
30
32
Yards / Rush
5.1
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
25
18
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
45%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
20
10
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-10.69
-7.18
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-21
-13
Sack EPA
-8.07
-2.01
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
37
70
Penalty EPA
-3.96
-5.92

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+160
Home nfelo
1,526
Away nfelo
1,450
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.9
Home QB Adjustment
+1.4
Away QB Adjustment
-5.5
Market Regression
+43.9
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
-5.5
Value
Ptile
10/28
1.5
60
11/04
9.2
95
11/08
1.1
57
11/18
-2.4
33
11/25
-4.5
22
12/02
0.6
54
12/09
-9.8
2
12/16
-2.9
31
12/23
-3.3
28
12/30
0.4
52
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
Value
Ptile
10/21
-9.1
4
11/04
-1.0
42
11/11
8.0
92
11/18
-1.8
38
11/25
-1.5
39
12/02
-5.0
19
12/09
0.7
54
12/16
-2.5
33
12/23
7.5
91
12/30
-4.9
19

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Ravens Defense
Colts logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
20
12
Yards / Game
10
23
Passing Yards / Game
5
25
Rushing Yards / Game
18
22

EPA

EPA / Play
16
16
EPA / Pass
17
14
EPA / Rush
11
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
19
Interceptions / Game
26
13
Fumbles / Game
11
11
Turnover EPA / Game
7
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
11
4th Down Efficiency
2
13
RZ Efficiency
21
1
Ravens Offense vs Colts Defense
Ravens logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
9
21
Yards / Game
11
27
Passing Yards / Game
17
10
Rushing Yards / Game
11
29

EPA

EPA / Play
10
26
EPA / Pass
13
27
EPA / Rush
17
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
9
Interceptions / Game
4
22
Fumbles / Game
12
30
Turnover EPA / Game
27
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
15
4th Down Efficiency
26
9
RZ Efficiency
6
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/28
6
W
W
U
11/04
3
W
W
U
11/08
17
W
W
U
11/18
-35
L
L
O
11/25
7
W
W
U
12/02
2
W
W
O
12/09
4
W
W
O
12/16
-12
L
L
U
12/23
7
W
W
U
12/30
12
W
W
U
BAL logo

Ravens

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/21
-30
L
L
O
11/04
10
W
W
U
11/11
35
W
W
O
11/18
3
W
P
U
11/25
3
W
W
U
12/02
-3
L
L
O
12/09
-3
L
L
O
12/16
-17
L
L
O
12/23
19
W
W
U
12/30
-6
L
L
U