INDColts
11-5
9
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
49°F
8 mph
24
BALRavens
10-6
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
49°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
6
3
0
9
Ravens
0
10
7
7
24
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
419
439
Total Plays
87
56
Yards / Play
4.8
7.8
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.12
Passing Yards
267
269
Comp/Att
28/54(52%)
12/23(52%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
11.7
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.60
Rushing Yards
152
170
Rush Attempts
30
32
Yards / Rush
5.1
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
18
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
45%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
20
10
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-10.69
-7.18
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-21
-13
Sack EPA
-8.07
-2.01
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
37
70
Penalty EPA
-3.96
-5.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+165
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,449
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.9
Home QB Adjustment
+1.4
Away QB Adjustment
-5.5
Market Regression
+43.9
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
-5.5
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
12
Yards / Game
10
23
Passing Yards / Game
5
25
Rushing Yards / Game
18
22
EPA
EPA / Play
16
16
EPA / Pass
17
14
EPA / Rush
11
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
19
Interceptions / Game
26
13
Fumbles / Game
11
11
Turnover EPA / Game
7
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
11
4th Down Efficiency
2
13
RZ Efficiency
21
1
Ravens Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
21
Yards / Game
11
27
Passing Yards / Game
17
10
Rushing Yards / Game
11
29
EPA
EPA / Play
10
26
EPA / Pass
13
27
EPA / Rush
17
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
9
Interceptions / Game
4
22
Fumbles / Game
12
30
Turnover EPA / Game
27
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
15
4th Down Efficiency
26
9
RZ Efficiency
6
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Ravens
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U