INDColts
5-2
34
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
62°F
12 mph
51
PITSteelers
4-3
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
62°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
17
14
0
34
Steelers
7
22
7
7
43
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
448
639
Total Plays
57
81
Yards / Play
7.9
7.9
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.33
Passing Yards
385
--
Comp/Att
26/45(58%)
40/49(82%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.74
Rushing Yards
63
117
Rush Attempts
10
32
Yards / Rush
6.3
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.43
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
34
Passing 1st downs
17
25
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
7
2
3rd Down %
50%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
33%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
1
5
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-11.85
-8.79
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-2.96
--
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
43
59
Penalty EPA
-7.00
-6.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model64.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-39
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,572
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-31.6
Home QB Adjustment
-0.1
Away QB Adjustment
+31.4
Market Regression
-57.1
Final Difference
-103.3
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+31.4
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
21
Yards / Game
3
17
Passing Yards / Game
1
22
Rushing Yards / Game
22
6
EPA
EPA / Play
10
27
EPA / Pass
9
25
EPA / Rush
30
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
17
Interceptions / Game
24
26
Fumbles / Game
30
14
Turnover EPA / Game
5
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
9
4th Down Efficiency
22
32
RZ Efficiency
12
19
Steelers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
18
Yards / Game
2
9
Passing Yards / Game
6
3
Rushing Yards / Game
17
19
EPA
EPA / Play
4
11
EPA / Pass
3
5
EPA / Rush
19
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
28
Interceptions / Game
7
25
Fumbles / Game
21
3
Turnover EPA / Game
21
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
3
4th Down Efficiency
10
5
RZ Efficiency
20
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U