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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ steelers week 8, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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IND logo
INDColts
5-2
34
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
62°F
12 mph
51
PITSteelers
4-3
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
62°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
17
14
0
34
Steelers
7
22
7
7
43

Spread

PIT logo
+4.5

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
448
639
Total Plays
57
81
Yards / Play
7.9
7.9
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.33
Passing Yards
385
--
Comp/Att
26/45(58%)
40/49(82%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.74
Rushing Yards
63
117
Rush Attempts
10
32
Yards / Rush
6.3
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.43
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
26
34
Passing 1st downs
17
25
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
7
2
3rd Down %
50%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
33%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
1
5
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-11.85
-8.79
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-2.96
--
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
43
59
Penalty EPA
-7.00
-6.87

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model62.4%
Spread Pick
PIT logo
Steelers+4.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.1%
Cover Probability
54.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-36
Home nfelo
1,482
Away nfelo
1,570
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-31.6
Home QB Adjustment
-0.1
Away QB Adjustment
+31.4
Market Regression
-41.6
Final Difference
-87.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+31.4
Value
Ptile
12/29
4.1
79
01/04
8.8
93
01/11
-6.5
13
09/07
4.3
79
09/15
2.0
65
09/21
12.3
99
09/28
11.2
98
10/05
3.5
74
10/09
2.7
69
10/19
4.9
81
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
Value
Ptile
12/15
0.9
56
12/22
1.2
58
12/29
-4.4
22
09/07
1.6
63
09/11
-3.9
27
09/21
3.8
76
09/28
3.1
71
10/05
-0.8
44
10/12
-4.2
25
10/20
1.6
62

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Steelers Defense
Colts logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
6
21
Yards / Game
3
17
Passing Yards / Game
1
22
Rushing Yards / Game
22
6

EPA

EPA / Play
10
27
EPA / Pass
9
25
EPA / Rush
30
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
17
Interceptions / Game
24
26
Fumbles / Game
30
14
Turnover EPA / Game
5
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
9
4th Down Efficiency
22
32
RZ Efficiency
12
19
Steelers Offense vs Colts Defense
Steelers logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
7
18
Yards / Game
2
9
Passing Yards / Game
6
3
Rushing Yards / Game
17
19

EPA

EPA / Play
4
11
EPA / Pass
3
5
EPA / Rush
19
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
28
Interceptions / Game
7
25
Fumbles / Game
21
3
Turnover EPA / Game
21
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
3
4th Down Efficiency
10
5
RZ Efficiency
20
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
20
W
W
U
01/04
1
W
W
O
01/11
-21
L
L
O
09/07
-7
L
W
O
09/15
-3
L
L
O
09/21
27
W
W
O
09/28
24
W
W
O
10/05
7
W
W
U
10/09
5
W
W
O
10/19
27
W
W
U
PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
10
W
W
O
12/22
7
W
W
O
12/29
13
W
W
U
09/07
3
W
L
O
09/11
-20
L
L
U
09/21
18
W
W
O
09/28
-3
L
L
O
10/05
8
W
W
U
10/12
-21
L
L
U
10/20
7
W
W
O