INDColts
5-2
24
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
48°F
12 mph
26
PITSteelers
3-4
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
48°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
13
0
6
22
Steelers
3
4
7
6
20
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
328
273
Total Plays
66
61
Yards / Play
5.0
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.14
Passing Yards
189
183
Comp/Att
21/32(66%)
26/35(74%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.10
Rushing Yards
139
90
Rush Attempts
29
25
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
33%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
75%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-21.23
-8.71
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-38
-8
Sack EPA
-9.36
-1.26
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
89
70
Penalty EPA
-7.97
-6.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model54.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+76
Home nfelo
1,616
Away nfelo
1,505
Home Field
+68.6
Base HFA
+50.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-103.9
Home QB Adjustment
-103.3
Away QB Adjustment
+0.6
Market Regression
+5.4
Final Difference
27.6
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
M. Rudolph
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-103.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
5
Yards / Game
25
5
Passing Yards / Game
25
13
Rushing Yards / Game
5
14
EPA
EPA / Play
18
2
EPA / Pass
23
4
EPA / Rush
2
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
24
Interceptions / Game
12
2
Fumbles / Game
22
1
Turnover EPA / Game
12
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
6
4th Down Efficiency
6
18
RZ Efficiency
3
3
Steelers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
18
Yards / Game
30
16
Passing Yards / Game
30
18
Rushing Yards / Game
29
5
EPA
EPA / Play
31
17
EPA / Pass
30
21
EPA / Rush
32
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
24
Interceptions / Game
28
6
Fumbles / Game
22
20
Turnover EPA / Game
5
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
27
4th Down Efficiency
32
10
RZ Efficiency
32
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Steelers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U