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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ steelers week 9, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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IND logo
INDColts
5-2
24
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
48°F
12 mph
26
PITSteelers
3-4
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
48°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
13
0
6
22
Steelers
3
4
7
6
20

Spread

PIT logo
-1

Total

OVER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
328
273
Total Plays
66
61
Yards / Play
5.0
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.14
Passing Yards
189
183
Comp/Att
21/32(66%)
26/35(74%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.10
Rushing Yards
139
90
Rush Attempts
29
25
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
33%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
75%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-21.23
-8.71
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-38
-8
Sack EPA
-9.36
-1.26
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
89
70
Penalty EPA
-7.97
-6.85

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model55.6%
Spread Pick
PIT logo
Steelers-1.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+78
Home nfelo
1,619
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+69.5
Base HFA
+51.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+18.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-103.9
Home QB Adjustment
-103.3
Away QB Adjustment
+0.6
Market Regression
+5.7
Final Difference
39.4
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
Value
Ptile
12/14
0.0
52
12/23
-1.6
41
12/31
-2.9
33
09/08
2.0
67
09/15
-1.7
41
09/22
6.0
86
09/29
0.9
60
10/06
-2.2
37
10/20
7.0
90
10/27
-2.6
34
B. Rudolph headshot

B. Rudolph

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-103.3
Value
Ptile
09/22
-3.5
28
09/30
4.5
81
10/06
-2.1
37
10/28
-3.4
28

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Steelers Defense
Colts logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
16
5
Yards / Game
25
5
Passing Yards / Game
25
13
Rushing Yards / Game
5
14

EPA

EPA / Play
18
2
EPA / Pass
23
4
EPA / Rush
2
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
24
Interceptions / Game
12
2
Fumbles / Game
22
1
Turnover EPA / Game
12
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
6
4th Down Efficiency
6
18
RZ Efficiency
3
3
Steelers Offense vs Colts Defense
Steelers logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
27
18
Yards / Game
30
16
Passing Yards / Game
30
18
Rushing Yards / Game
29
5

EPA

EPA / Play
31
17
EPA / Pass
30
21
EPA / Rush
32
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
24
Interceptions / Game
28
6
Fumbles / Game
22
20
Turnover EPA / Game
5
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
27
4th Down Efficiency
32
10
RZ Efficiency
32
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
16
W
W
O
01/05
14
W
W
U
01/12
-18
L
L
U
09/08
-6
L
P
O
09/15
2
W
W
U
09/22
3
W
W
O
09/29
-7
L
L
O
10/06
6
W
W
U
10/20
7
W
W
O
10/27
2
W
L
U
PIT logo

Steelers

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/16
7
W
W
U
12/23
-3
L
W
O
12/30
3
W
L
U
09/08
-30
L
L
U
09/15
-2
L
L
O
09/22
-4
L
W
U
09/30
24
W
W
U
10/06
-3
L
W
O
10/13
7
W
W
U
10/28
13
W
L
U