INDColts
6-5
10
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
37°F
2 mph
45
PITSteelers
6-5
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
37°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
7
0
0
10
Steelers
6
15
7
11
39
Spread
-9.5
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
240
524
Total Plays
57
71
Yards / Play
4.2
7.4
EPA / Play
-0.39
+0.20
Passing Yards
186
--
Comp/Att
20/34(59%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
--
EPA / Pass
-0.37
+0.49
Rushing Yards
54
158
Rush Attempts
18
32
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
24
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
--
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
21%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
17%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-12.40
-10.77
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-34
--
Sack EPA
-10.54
--
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
30
48
Penalty EPA
-5.33
+1.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+209
Home nfelo
1,563
Away nfelo
1,513
Home Field
+81.8
Base HFA
+60.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+76.9
Home QB Adjustment
+36.6
Away QB Adjustment
-40.2
Market Regression
+53.9
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-40.2
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+36.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
9
Yards / Game
28
19
Passing Yards / Game
20
30
Rushing Yards / Game
29
5
EPA
EPA / Play
27
9
EPA / Pass
25
13
EPA / Rush
32
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
18
Interceptions / Game
28
8
Fumbles / Game
15
2
Turnover EPA / Game
3
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
15
4th Down Efficiency
11
4
RZ Efficiency
20
6
Steelers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
25
Yards / Game
3
27
Passing Yards / Game
13
23
Rushing Yards / Game
14
25
EPA
EPA / Play
9
14
EPA / Pass
12
18
EPA / Rush
7
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
15
Interceptions / Game
29
6
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
16
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
19
4th Down Efficiency
29
30
RZ Efficiency
13
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Steelers
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U