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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ steelers week 13, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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IND logo
INDColts
6-5
10
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
37°F
2 mph
45
PITSteelers
6-5
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
37°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
7
0
0
10
Steelers
6
15
7
11
39

Spread

PIT logo
-9.5

Total

OVER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
240
524
Total Plays
57
71
Yards / Play
4.2
7.4
EPA / Play
-0.39
+0.20
Passing Yards
186
--
Comp/Att
20/34(59%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
--
EPA / Pass
-0.37
+0.49
Rushing Yards
54
158
Rush Attempts
18
32
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
11
24
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
--
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
21%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
17%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-12.40
-10.77
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-34
--
Sack EPA
-10.54
--
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
30
48
Penalty EPA
-5.33
+1.05

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+211
Home nfelo
1,563
Away nfelo
1,512
Home Field
+82.7
Base HFA
+61.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+76.9
Home QB Adjustment
+36.6
Away QB Adjustment
-40.2
Market Regression
+53.9
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-40.2
Value
Ptile
01/01
4.0
77
10/07
-2.7
32
10/11
-1.6
38
10/21
-0.6
46
10/28
2.3
64
11/04
-0.6
46
10/04
-0.5
48
10/08
2.3
67
11/22
-1.5
39
11/29
1.2
58
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+36.6
Value
Ptile
12/14
4.1
78
12/21
1.4
60
12/28
4.3
79
01/03
-1.1
43
09/10
2.6
69
09/20
11.0
98
09/27
-3.3
26
11/01
-6.2
11
11/08
1.2
59
11/29
4.1
79

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Steelers Defense
Colts logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
9
Yards / Game
28
19
Passing Yards / Game
20
30
Rushing Yards / Game
29
5

EPA

EPA / Play
27
9
EPA / Pass
25
13
EPA / Rush
32
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
18
Interceptions / Game
28
8
Fumbles / Game
15
2
Turnover EPA / Game
3
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
15
4th Down Efficiency
11
4
RZ Efficiency
20
6
Steelers Offense vs Colts Defense
Steelers logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
7
25
Yards / Game
3
27
Passing Yards / Game
13
23
Rushing Yards / Game
14
25

EPA

EPA / Play
9
14
EPA / Pass
12
18
EPA / Rush
7
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
15
Interceptions / Game
29
6
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
16
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
19
4th Down Efficiency
29
30
RZ Efficiency
13
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
-13
L
L
U
09/27
2
W
L
O
10/04
3
W
L
U
10/08
7
W
W
O
10/18
-7
L
W
O
10/25
-6
L
L
U
11/02
-3
L
W
O
11/08
3
W
W
O
11/22
3
W
W
U
11/29
13
W
W
U
PIT logo

Steelers

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
25
W
W
O
09/27
6
W
W
U
10/01
-3
L
P
U
10/12
4
W
W
U
10/18
12
W
W
U
10/25
-10
L
L
U
11/01
-6
L
L
U
11/08
3
W
L
O
11/15
21
W
W
U
11/29
-9
L
L
O