INDColts
-
24
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
034
HOUTexans
-
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
10
0
14
24
Texans
6
7
7
14
34
Spread
+2
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
463
355
Total Plays
69
61
Yards / Play
6.7
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.29
Passing Yards
419
98
Comp/Att
40/57(70%)
9/17(53%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.23
Rushing Yards
44
257
Rush Attempts
10
42
Yards / Rush
4.4
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
23
Passing 1st downs
20
7
Rushing 1st downs
3
15
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
33%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-2.17
-4.87
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-9
Sack EPA
-2.79
-2.29
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
73
50
Penalty EPA
-8.04
-8.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-58
Home nfelo
1,497
Away nfelo
1,600
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-0.7
Home QB Adjustment
+14.0
Away QB Adjustment
+14.8
Market Regression
+35.5
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+14.8
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+14.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
29
Yards / Game
6
29
Passing Yards / Game
8
30
Rushing Yards / Game
29
14
EPA
EPA / Play
3
32
EPA / Pass
4
32
EPA / Rush
13
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
21
Interceptions / Game
16
23
Fumbles / Game
7
32
Turnover EPA / Game
21
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
20
4th Down Efficiency
7
32
RZ Efficiency
1
31
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
23
Yards / Game
3
20
Passing Yards / Game
13
15
Rushing Yards / Game
7
27
EPA
EPA / Play
2
29
EPA / Pass
5
21
EPA / Rush
4
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
31
Interceptions / Game
7
30
Fumbles / Game
3
21
Turnover EPA / Game
29
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
23
4th Down Efficiency
14
12
RZ Efficiency
5
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U