nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ texans week 1, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

IND logo
INDColts
-
24
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
34
HOUTexans
-
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
10
0
14
24
Texans
6
7
7
14
34

Spread

HOU logo
+2

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
463
355
Total Plays
69
61
Yards / Play
6.7
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.29
Passing Yards
419
98
Comp/Att
40/57(70%)
9/17(53%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.23
Rushing Yards
44
257
Rush Attempts
10
42
Yards / Rush
4.4
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.34
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
25
23
Passing 1st downs
20
7
Rushing 1st downs
3
15
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
33%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-2.17
-4.87
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-9
Sack EPA
-2.79
-2.29
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
73
50
Penalty EPA
-8.04
-8.85

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-59
Home nfelo
1,498
Away nfelo
1,601
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-0.7
Home QB Adjustment
+14.0
Away QB Adjustment
+14.8
Market Regression
+35.5
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0

Quarterbacks

P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+14.8
Value
Ptile
11/22
3.0
69
11/29
2.8
68
12/06
3.4
73
12/13
-1.0
44
12/17
8.3
93
12/27
2.7
67
01/03
-1.3
41
01/16
3.3
71
01/24
10.3
97
02/07
6.0
86
M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+14.0
Value
Ptile
10/25
4.1
76
11/01
0.2
51
11/08
4.4
79
11/23
1.9
63
11/29
3.1
70
12/06
-1.2
43
12/13
7.4
90
12/20
7.0
89
12/27
3.0
69
01/03
3.6
73

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Colts logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
4
29
Yards / Game
6
29
Passing Yards / Game
8
30
Rushing Yards / Game
29
14

EPA

EPA / Play
3
32
EPA / Pass
4
32
EPA / Rush
13
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
21
Interceptions / Game
16
23
Fumbles / Game
7
32
Turnover EPA / Game
21
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
20
4th Down Efficiency
7
32
RZ Efficiency
1
31
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Texans logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
11
23
Yards / Game
3
20
Passing Yards / Game
13
15
Rushing Yards / Game
7
27

EPA

EPA / Play
2
29
EPA / Pass
5
21
EPA / Rush
4
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
31
Interceptions / Game
7
30
Fumbles / Game
3
21
Turnover EPA / Game
29
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
23
4th Down Efficiency
14
12
RZ Efficiency
5
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
2
W
W
U
11/29
8
W
W
O
12/06
10
W
W
U
12/13
12
W
W
O
12/17
4
W
W
O
12/27
-14
L
L
O
01/03
-23
L
L
O
01/16
17
W
W
U
01/24
13
W
W
O
02/07
-14
L
L
U
HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
3
W
P
O
11/01
21
W
W
U
11/08
-3
L
W
U
11/23
-3
L
L
U
11/29
-8
L
L
O
12/06
-5
L
L
U
12/13
27
W
W
U
12/20
3
W
L
U
12/27
7
W
W
P
01/03
7
W
L
O